Fevered lobbying aims to solidify China trade bill support, vote by vote

House opens debate on trade bill, vote expected Wednesday

May 23, 2000
Web posted at: 8:40 p.m. EDT (0040 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vote counters on both sides of the China trade issue spent their last full day Tuesday before the expected House vote on permanent normal trade relations (PNTR), scrambling to line up undecided lawmakers with the fate of the bilateral trade pact hanging in the balance.

As the pivotal debate opened on the House floor early on Tuesday evening, proponents of the measure sounded a note of victory, saying they had secured assurances from at least 218 House members that they would vote in favor of the trade pact.

A final vote on the measure was expected to take place during the day Wednesday.

"We've got the votes, we've won," said Rep. James Moran (D-Virginia), one of a comparatively small number of chamber Democrats intent in seeing the bill pass when it comes up for a vote on Wednesday.

But the numbers, while they may hint at narrow passage of the trade agreement, do not yet bear Moran's exuberance out.

Opponents of the measure stepped up their efforts throughout the day to convince still undeclared members that China does not deserve to be rewarded with a "blank check" for its trade and human rights dealings.

Though fierce lobbying efforts have been under way for weeks, the House's verdict on the trade pact was still uncertain on the eve of the vote. Internal, congressional head counts suggested the bill might pass the chamber by a narrow margin, while at least one informal survey -- conducted by the Associated Press -- indicated proponents could be as many 22 votes short.

The pact aims to throw open China's vast, untapped business, commercial and agricultural sectors to U.S. goods and services, and would ease China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), though congressional disapproval of the trade pact would not block China's entry to the trade body.

Rep. Bill Archer (R-Texas), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, opened the debate on the floor Tuesday, speaking in favor of the bill.

"How does severing economic relations bring about the changes opponents say they want?" Archer asked. "It would be unthinkable for the Congress not to approve this historic legislation."

"The greatest American exports to China are those yet to come," Archer continued. "These are freedom of choice, freedom of opportunity."

Congressional affirmation of the pact would also bring an end to the arduous, annual process of approving open trade with the People's Republic of China.

The House is the true hurdle for this trade agreement. The pact appears all but certain to glide through the Senate in June should the House register its approval.

The Clinton Administration has sidled up to its regular adversaries, the members of the House Republican leadership, in a concentrated attempt to convince lawmakers that Wednesday's vote is the most important they will cast this session, and could be one of the most important of their legislative careers.

"The consequences of this vote will be felt after I am no longer president," Clinton said Tuesday afternoon. "Our country fought three wars in Asia in the last half-century. We ought to give our children a chance to have a different 50 years ahead."

President Bill Clinton's most trusted allies, however -- the congressional leaders of his own party -- are lining up for the most part against his position on this vote. They are spurred on by their supporters in the organized labor community, who argue that open trade with China would leech jobs away from the United States and would be rewarded for abusing its own workforce.

House Democratic Whip David Bonior (D-Michigan), who has led the charge for opponents of the trade deal, disputed any claims that backers of the trade deal had reached 218 'yes' votes, saying Tuesday afternoon, "Nobody has the votes yet. We can beat this thing."

Proponent 'whips' predict passage

Republican vote counters, led by Rep. David Dreier (California), said Tuesday morning they were confident they could deliver the 150 'yes' votes they had originally pledged to the Clinton Administration.

Rep. David Dreier

Rep. Robert Matsui, (D-California), the president's House minority "point man" on PNTR, said Tuesday that the requisite Democratic contingent of 'yes' votes -- between 70 and 80 -- was finally within reach, though he would not estimate the number of Democrats who might vote in the affirmative.

The informal Associated Press poll of House lawmakers, however, paints a bit of a different picture. According to the AP, 195 members -- 136 Republicans and 59 Democrats -- have committed to voting in favor of the China trade bill.

Some 169 lawmakers, the AP said late Tuesday afternoon, have committed to voting against the bill. Of those, 121 are Democrats, 46 Republicans, and the last two were the House's only independents, Bernard Sanders of Vermont and Virgil Goode of Virginia.

That leaves 71 undecided members, all of whom were peppered by lobbyists for both sides in the hours leading up to Wednesday's vote.

Administration officials kept a close eye on developments, and expressed cautious optimism that the bill would pass.

Rep. Robert Matsui

"Despite the progress we have seen over the last week, we still do not have the 218 votes yet to win it," said Commerce Secretary William Daley on Tuesday morning. "In the end, I am optimistic we will pull it out."

The administration denied on Tuesday rumors that deals -- referred to in congressional circles as "horse trading" -- were being cut to scoot the bill to passage. Rumors began to circulate late on Monday that the administration had offered some undecided members trade-offs on unrelated issues to secure extra votes.

Rather, the White House said a Chinese human rights commission proposed by Reps. Doug Bereuter (R-Nebraska), and Sander Levin (D-Michigan), would be deal enough to sway members.

The commission, whose constitution will be included as language in the trade bill that will be considered in the House, will be charged with investigating reports of human rights abuses in China, and could recommend sanctions consistent with the bylaws of the WTO.

Rep. Gregory Meeks

But that doesn't mean other methods weren't employed in an effort to change some hearts on the issue.

Democrat Gregory Meeks of New York came out in favor of the bill in a mid-afternoon Tuesday news conference, saying though he had reservations about the Chinese central government's labor and human rights practices, he thought passage of the bill would be the best thing for the American and Chinese people.

Meeks was pampered with first class treatment by the administration leading up to his announcement. He flew on Air Force One last week as a guest of the president to New York's state Democratic Party Convention, and attended Monday night's state dinner for South African President Thabo Mbeki.

He was joined at his Tuesday news conference by five other previously undecided Democrats, all of whom said they would vote in favor of the bill on Wednesday.

The president cajoled several lawmakers during Monday's state dinner, including Rep. James Clyburn (D-South Carolina), chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, and an all but certain 'no' vote.

Clinton was to meet later Thursday with four unnamed, undecided lawmakers. He also faxed a letter to all House members still listed as undecided late on Tuesday afternoon, urging them to support the bill.

Plugging away

Still, organized labor operatives engaged in an all-out blitz on Capitol Hill throughout the day Tuesday.

Gov. George W. Bush

"I think this is a really important vote in terms of how working people will view candidates," said AFL-CIO President John Sweeney. "We're going to put out our best effort in 2000 to get our members out to vote. It will be their decision how to hold members accountable."

Labor's efforts were countered by the likes of the United States Chamber of Commerce and Texas Gov. and GOP presidential hopeful George W. Bush, who told an audience Tuesday at the National Press Club in Washington that he intended to bend some ears on Capitol Hill in favor of the pact.

"The president has given it his best shot," Bush said. "We need to give entrepreneurs in China a taste of freedom, a chance to grow."

"When we trade with China, we are trading more and more with people in the private sector," Bush said. "We have to give freedom a chance to take hold.

Appearing later in the day before a lunch meeting of House Republicans, Bush said, "You need to vote for free trade. It is okay if you are against us, but don't be."

CNN's Jonathan Karl and John King,Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report, which was written by Ian Christopher McCaleb.