Whose Ad Is It Anyway?

By Brooks Jackson/CNN

WASHINGTON (March 20) -- Four years ago, candidate Bill Clinton made a promise in his "Second Chance" TV ad. "I have a plan to end welfare as we know it," he said.

Now he's running for re-election and once again offering the promise of welfare reform in his TV ads. "I challenge this Congress to send me a bipartisan welfare reform bill..." he says in his "Cherish" TV spot.(1.5 MB QuickTime movie)

It worked once. Why not again? Traditonally, welfare reform is a Republican issue. Sen. Robert Dole, who this week captured the GOP nomination, has talked about it in his "Basic Values" ad: "Bob Dole's agenda for America: Reform welfare. Stop rewarding illegitimacy and dependency."

But these days, you can hardly tell Dole's ad from one from the Democratic National Committee that calls for a reduction in teen pregnancy. Its message: "Strict limits on welfare benefits. Teach values in our schools. No work, no welfare."

Clinton began his re-election campaign without waiting for Dole to actually clinch the Republican nomination. About two weeks ago, the Democrats launched a multi-million-dollar advertising campaign that for the moment the Republicans cannot match.

Ads by Clinton and his party have appeared more than 2,500 times in 42 cities since March 7. That's two-and-a-half times more often than Dole's ad, which showed up in only 14 cities.

Clinton's ad strategy is partly defensive. Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, said: "I think Clinton wants to innoculate himself on the issue of welfare reform...Dole and the Republicans want to make the case that Clinton vetoed their welfare reform bill."

Another Clinton ad strategy targets women voters with a message to get tough on crime against women. The Democratic National Committee's "Victims" ad says: "Every year in America one million women are victims of domestic abuse."

Said Mellman: "Of course the women's vote is critically important to Democrats. So being able to translate the general issue of crime to a specific audience that's going to be important to the Democrats in the fall is part of what that ad's all about."

The O.J. Simpson trial boosted battered women as an issue. Republican hope voters will remember another courtroom case, though: Paula Jones' sexual harrassment lawsuit against the president.

"I think that Bill Clinton's challenge in this ad is those people who are going to look at it as cynical, as some of us do, that it's really a smoke screen to offset the sexual harassment case he's facing," said Ladonna Lee, a Republican pollster

It's a rule of thumb in politics that most voters don't tune into the campaign until after the World Series. So Clinton's pre-season ad blitz may reveal his weaknesses more than it strengthens his hand over Dole.

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