What To Look For On Sunday

WASHINGTON (Oct. 4) -- Anyone who's followed the 1996 presidential campaign this long -- remember, the last bit of drama drained away with Bob Dole's win in the South Carolina primary on March 2 -- can probably anticipate big chunks of Sunday's debate in their sleep.

Even the Clinton and Dole campaigns agree on many of the topics that moderator Jim Lehrer is likely to ask about. So what viewers are likely to see is two carefully-prepped candidates reprising their favorite lines from the stump and hurling statistics back and forth.

At this point, a month away from Election Day, there aren't all that many people who are truly undecided. Those who tune in, and polls suggest less interest than in 1992, may do so only to see if there are any surprises -- weird gaffes, unanswered charges, bursts of temper.

So, what will Dole and Clinton talk about? The two campaigns agree on the No. 1 issue. It's the economy and taxes, so you should expect money matters to take center stage in Hartford.

What will they say? The candidates have been dropping hints for weeks.

Here's Clinton's take on the economy:

"We have ten and a half million more jobs, the lowest unemployment rate in seven and a half years, almost four and a half million new homeowners..."

But Dole says the growth is anemic.

"I am not satisfied with an economy distinguished by record bankruptcies, low productivity, and stagnant wages. I don't believe that President Clinton has an answer to these problems..."

Dole says his answer is simple.

"We're going to get this economy moving again with a pro-growth plan that starts with a tax cut of 15 percent across the board, 15 percent across the board..." he said.

Clinton says that would be a budget-buster. He talks tax cuts, too, but on a much more modest scale.

"We ought to have a tax cut, but it ought to be a tax cut that's focused on the needs of child-rearing and education and health care and buying or selling a home..."

Expect crime and drugs to get an airing, too.

Clinton's refrain is that crime is down and it's time to stay the course. "The crime rate has come down for four years in a row. The juvenile crime rate is starting to drop. The juvenile murder rate has come way down."

Dole concedes a limited, recent improvement, but points to a larger truth: Americans live with a level of crime far higher than they used to.

"Yes, some statistics are down and that, of course, is the good news," he says. "But the truth is that half a million, half a million more Americans were victims of violent crime, violent crime in 1994 than in 1992..."

Dole links crime to drugs and mocks Clinton's anti-drug effort. It's an opening to the character issue, too, which the Dole camp has targeted effectively with its TV spot featuring Clinton's joking answer to a question about smoking marijuana.

Clinton derides Dole's links to tobacco. Each weighs in on the question of moral values.

Says Clinton: "We've worked hard to protect our children from the dangers of advertising, distribution and sales of tobacco... ...we've worked hard with the entertainment industry to put the V-chip in television..."

Dole, though, says the Clinton Administration's posture on illegal drugs has been inconsistent and half-hearted.

"We will speak out on drugs every month that I am in office," he said. "We will encourage the movie, television and music industries to embrace a no-use, zero-tolerance message..."

For all the primary season attention it got, neither campaign wants to debate abortion. The Clinton campaign, perhaps a bit defensively, put welfare on its issues list. Clinton takes credit for signing the welfare reform bill over liberal objections; Republicans say they dragged him kicking and screaming into finally living up to a 1992 campaign promise to "end welfare as we know it."

In a week when the White House became a Mideast negotiating camp, it's the Dole campaign that wants to talk about international matters. Dole used to hold to the adage that partisan differences should stop at the water's edge, but lately he has accused Clinton of pursuing a photo-op foreign policy.

What won't the candidates say? Both men have been raising campaign contributions like crazed weasels this year, so don't expect any fervent pleas for campaign finance reform. It's not on most voters' radar screens, and besides, anything that Clinton or Dole would say on the subject would be sure to ring hollow.

Ross Perot has suggested it's one of the important issues that will get short shrift Sunday night.

"Campaign reform: They promised it, we brought it up," Perot told his recent St. Louis rally. "They didn't deliver it. We're gonna deliver it in 1997."

The debate will offer the candidates a chance to replow some familiar ground. The biggest unknown, though, is how Clinton may respond to any particularly tough questions posed by Lehrer on Whitewater, the FBI files fiasco or the travel office firings. The questions are certain to be tougher and more focused than in the town meeting format debate on Oct. 16 in San Diego.

CNN's Charles Bierbauer contributed to this report.