Dole Looking To The Fall

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, March 18) -- No matter how well he may do in tomorrow's Midwestern primaries, Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole (R-Kan.) can't lock up the Republican nomination. It will take one more week and the cooperation of California's Republican voters on March 26 to do that.

But Dole is firmly in command, already focused on the legislative struggle that could shape the fall showdown with President Bill Clinton. For the next six months, the important campaign trail will be a mere 1.3 miles long: the distance between Capitol Hill and the White House.

Today, Dole will campaign in Illinois and Michigan, while Buchanan targets Chicago and Wisconsin. Over the weekend, Dole told Ilinois crowds his 35-year Washington career is an asset, not a liability. Buchanan courted labor voters, independents and Democrats, who can cross over and vote in some of the GOP primaries.

In voter surveys, Dole has big leads everywhere. An Ohio Poll, for example, gave him a 74 percent-17 percent lead over Buchanan, with 3 percent favoring talk show commentator Alan Keyes.

If tomorrow's Industrial Heartland primaries aren't an immediate battleground, they will be crucial swing states in the November general election. An Associated Press forecast last week labeled Wisconsin and Michigan toss-ups, Ohio as leaning Republican and Illinois as likely Democratic. In 1992, Clinton targeted the region, beginning with a bus tour immediately following the Democratic convention in New York.

In all, 219 Republican delegates are at stake tomorrow. If Dole were to capture all of them, he would still be 35 shy of the 996 needed for the GOP nomination.

Here's a state-by-state rundown:

• Illinois: Voters here, as in the New York GOP primary, do not vote directly for candidates.Instead, voters cast their ballots for two to four delegates per congressional district: 59 in all. Another 10 at-large delegates are selected later at the state convention. As in New York, Dole has filed a slate of well-known delegates, including elected officials.

• Michigan: Voters will select 57 delegates on a proportional basis. However, a candidate must hit a 15 percent threshold to win any delegates.

• Ohio: Voters will select 67 delegates using a combination winner-take-all system. The candidate with the most statewide votes wins at-large delegates and the winner in each congressional district wins that district's delegates.

• Wisconsin: Republican voters here also use the combination winner-take-all system to select their 36 delegates.