Beltway Bob Vs. Slick Willie

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, March 19) -- It didn't much matter whether Sen. Robert Dole (R-Kan.) clinched the GOP nomination tonight. That he would face President Bill Clinton next November was conceded even by Dole's last remaining rival, conservative pundit Pat Buchanan, heading into the Midwestern primaries.

But Dole' sweep of Michigan, Illinois, Ohio and Wisconsin did shore up his claim to the nomination, and though Buchanan has vowed to keep on campaigning in California this week, the Kansas senator can, for now, retreat to the confines of the U.S. Senate.

That's clearly where he's most comfortable. In what might be called "Bob's Beltway Strategy," Dole had already kicked his leadership offensive into high gear today after Clinton submitted his fiscal 1997 budget. At a Capitol Hill news conference, the Senate majority leader noted somberly that Clinton's new budget was his ninth. A workable starting point? Dole was asked. "After you have had nine of them in one year, it is kind of hard to say," Dole told the reporter.

It's The Character Issue, Stupid. "I would hope that after three years of broken promises, you would elect someone who would keep their word," Dole told Michigan supporters earlier this week. "And that's Bob Dole, right here," he said.

Key to Dole's Beltway strategy will be portraying himself as a man of character and action, with not-so-subtle digs at Clinton. In a Washington-style game of chicken, Dole will send a stream of bills to the White House. If Clinton signs them, Dole can portray himself as "a doer," and if Clinton vetoes them, Dole will call him a "do-nothing" president.

That's the strategy, at least. In addition, innuendo and intrigue stemming from the ongoing Senate Whitewater investigation will make their way into the campaign, if not directly by Dole. One of the Kansan's key campaign aides, New York Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, just happens to chair the Senate inquiry, which has been stalled in recent weeks by Senate Democrats.

Whitewater Shmitewater Clinton will attempt to hold the high ground on the budget fight, maintaining he's agreed to the Republicans' seven-year timetable, as well as their demand to use Congressional Budget Office numbers, all while he's protected Medicare, Medicaid and environmental programs from voracious GOP budget -cutters. So far, the strategy has worked. Polls show he has been blamed less than the Republicans for the continuing budget impasse.

On Whitewater, the president will continue to claim complete openness, while he must hope no new revelations, if there are any, emerge to give the investigation legs. Though recently Mrs. Clinton has been the focus of Whitewater and the Travelgate fracas, the president's reelection chances seem relatively unaffected by the Whitewater affair, according to recent surveys.

California Dreaming Armed with $20 million, Clinton is poised to mount an aggressive campaign -- something he loves to do. The big focus: California. "It's key to our electoral college map," campaign spokeswoman Ann Lewis told AP. The president has taken 23 choreographed trips to the Golden State to highlight issues important to Californians.

Meanwhile, the Clinton-Gore campaign last week unleashed a major media buy aimed to blunt criticism Clinton hasn't delivered on welfare reform, and to reinforce Clinton's commitment to safeguarding America's safety net.

Dole had planned a four-day trip to the Golden State to campaign for its primary next Tuesday. He might still go. On the itinerary: a visit to Palmdale, home of Northrop Grumman Corp., maker of the B-2 bomber. Dole only recently wrote Senate Armed Service Chairman Strom Thurmond (R-N.C.) requesting that the B-2 fleet be expanded.

By most accounts, this looks like Clinton country. He won the state handily in the 1992 general election, after former president George Bush all but wrote off the state. So while it may be Clinton's to lose, the President can't afford a loss here, and that's reason enough for Dole to mount an aggressive California campaign.

"He (Dole) is going to make California a top commitment in his campaign," predicted Sacramento lawyer Steve Merksamer, a Dole advisor. If so, he'll have to spend a lot of money in this media-rich state, says Cal Berkeley political professor Bruce Cain. "If they don't run a campaign in this state, then Clinton should win fairly easily. It just comes down to how far you can make the federal funds go, how far they can be spread." Cain told the Associated Press.

The Buchanan Factor He's not gone yet. His campaign aides today were promoting the idea of a Dole-Buchanan ticket, which seems about as likely as a Buchanan win in California's primary next Tuesday. Buchanan himself called such talk "grossly premature." "We've got one week of hard campaiging and then I'm going to be home for awhile," the ever-feisty Buchanan announced today. Turning a blind eye to his crushing defeat, the firebrand told his supporters, "We're going to make a battle here in California. I am running for the Republican nomination."

He must be referring to Campaign 2000. Faced with a hostile GOP leadership, Buchanan has some soul-searching to do. Should he leave the party and mount a third-party challenge, a drive that could strengthen a renewed bid four years from now? Or can he wield the leverage he wants within the Republican Party?

Buchanan's direction, of course, may ultimately be decided by Dole, who can ill afford to lose the commentator's conservative voting bloc. The Kansan must walk a delicate line between accommodating Buchanan and his followers, and keeping Buchanan at arm's length to avoid scaring off moderate voters. The Catch-22 decisions Dole must navigate include Buchanan's visibility at the San Diego convention, and the Kansan's choice of running mate.

By denying Buchanan the central role he believes he's entitled to in San Diego, or by selecting an unacceptable running mate (like Gen. Colin Powell), Dole risks a Buchanan exodus from the GOP. That could throw the election to Clinton. But featuring Buchanan prominently, or acceding to his demand that the GOP adopt a strict right-to-life plank, could decimate Dole's chances with moderate voices.

Whither Ross Perot? Today wasn't all good news for Dole. Earlier the Texas billionaire told San Antonio's WOAI he would run if summoned by his Reform Party. "Let's assume the dust clears, and that's what the members of this party want," he said. "Then certainly, I would give it everything I have, because probably there's not a luckier person alive in this country today."

The Texan has said he'll eagerly step aside if the Reform Party chooses another candidate. But since Perot is bankrolling the Reform Party, it seems likely he'll be the inevitable candidate. After all, who of any national stature would run as Perot's candidate? Plus, that arrangement would allow him to spend his personal fortune on a presidential run.

Campaign '96 may yet hold a few more surprises.