Dole May Find California Tough Going

By Bruce Morton/CNN

SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO, Calif. (March 21) -- In the crowds at the San Juan Capistrano Mission here, on the day the swallows were supposed to return, you could see the faces of the new California.

The people in the crowd represented an ethnic celebration, a reflection of the California in which non-Hispanic whites will soon be a minority.

Swallows were hard to spot, actually. For the past four years, Californians have a better chance of seeing President Bill Clinton, who has made California a priority in his administration because of its vast importance to his re-election next fall.

Clinton, as president, has visited California 23 times. And he's done everything for the state except propose to it.

"He has showered us with federal largesse, he has felt our pain and he has donated to the pain fund," says Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, one political analyst. (65K AIFF or WAV sound)

Clinton has freed federal money for the state for everything from railroads to research, and that may be one reason a Los Angeles Times poll this week had Clinton beating Sen. Robert Dole by twenty points.

Los Angeles County Supervisor Yvonne Braithwate Burke suggested Dole may find California a tough place to win votes.

"In California, it doesn't make any difference whether you're liberal or conservative," Burke said. "But they (voters) want someone who's colorful and interesting. Dole doesn't fit the California mold. Have you ever seen Bob Dole in shades?"

California, though, is much more than sun-drenched beaches or trendy L.A. restaurants. It's also expansive farms in the Great Central Valley and miles of suburbs.

It's Orange County, long a Republican stronghold, socially permissive, in favor of abortion rights, but fiscally conservative. One recent poll showed Clinton and Dole neck and neck in what was once a GOP fortress.

University of California, Irvine pollster Mark Baldassare says four out of 10 Orange County residents feel the nation is on the right track. "The president has favorability ratings above 50 percent in Orange County now," Baldassare said. "Many feel that he's doing a pretty good job in terms of jobs and the economy."

In nearby Long Beach, often a swing area in California elections, some golfers agreed with those Orange County fans of the president.

"I think he's done a good job with the economy," one man said. "Interest rates are down, inflation is down, there are a lot of jobs out there. I think we're better off now than we were four years ago."

The feeling is not unanimous. "I believe in the Republican stand on most issues," one woman said, "and I'm not real happy with Clinton."

The unemployment rate in this state is about two points higher than the national average. But things have started to improve. Says Burke: "We're coming out of the doldrums, and we're moving into new fields and Clinton has represented a new progressive move to the year 2000 in terms of technology, and that's what's selling."

President George Bush gave up on California in 1992. Analysts say Dole can't do that, because not fighting here lets Clinton spend millions of extra dollars in other, close states.

Republican strategist Ken Khachigian put it this way: "A Republican can win the presidency without winning California. A Republican can't win the presidency if he doesn't contest California."

Poll Shows Clinton Would Beat Dole In California (3/20)

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Dole May Find California Tough Going

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