Where The President's Ads Are Airing

By Brooks Jackson/CNN

WASHINGTON (March 29) -- President Bill Clinton is running hard, but he's not running everywhere. We've taken a look at where Clinton forces are are spending money on television ads -- and where they're not.

Clinton's own campaign commercials, including one challenging Congress to send him a "bipartisan welfare bill," have run in selected states where he was on the primary ballot. Meanwhile, for the last three weeks, his party has been running ads, too.

Data from CNN's consultant, Competitive Media Reporting shows heavy buys in Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Maine, Connecticut, North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia. Together, they map Clinton's geographical plan for re-election.

"We're in a general election targeting, electoral college targeting mode from the get-go," said Mark Siegel, a Democratic analyst. Republican targeting expert John Morgan notes, "They're targeting based on certain basis states they have to have. If they don't take California, it's all over. If they don't take Illinois and Pennsylania, it's all over. It they don't take Michigan, it's all over."

Clinton is wasting no money on ads in much of the South, including Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia -- all lost to George Bush in 1992 by wide margins.

Ads are running in Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana, all states Clinton won four years ago. North Carolina, suprisingly, has also been targeted. Clinton trails Sen. Robert Dole in Elizabeth Dole's home state by 15 points in the most recent poll, although in '92 he came within one point of beating Bush. Clinton also lost Florida by two points in '92 but is tied in one recent poll.

Notes Siegel: "The citizens of Florida are really scared to death of the Republican Congress and the Republican Contract. They think it's a contract on them and not for them. And that state is in play. Bill Clinton can win in Florida and even if he doesn't, the Republicans are going to have to spend a fortune to hold it."

Clinton's Western strategy includes:

Ads in California, Washington, Oregon, and Nevada--all of which he won in '92.
Write off Arizona and Utah to Republicans, but make heavy ad buys in Colorado and New Mexico, which Clinton carried last time.

In the Industrial heartland, only Indiana is being passed by. Ads are running everywhere else. There are no ads running in New York or Massachusetts or Maryland either, but that's because Clinton won them all by healthy margins in '92.

That's the essence of targeting -- it's just as big a waste to spend money where you're sure you'll win as it is to spend it where you're sure you'll lose.

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Where The President's Ads Are Airing

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