Pennsylvania Points To Clinton

HAVERTOWN, Pa. (AllPolitics, April 22) -- The fiction: Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary means nothing in the presidential sweepstakes, since presumptive GOP nominee Sen. Robert Dole (R-Kan.) and President Bill Clinton are poised to win the state handily without opposition.

The fact: Tuesday's primary is the curtain-raiser in what will become a brutal fight for the Keystone State's 23 crucial electoral votes next fall.

Dole is poised to pick up the state's 72 Republican delegates easily, but whether he can wrest control of the state Clinton next fall is much less certain.

A new Keystone poll shows Clinton beating Dole, 51 to 34 percent, with Clinton doing best among voters 65 and older. And that's the group the 72-year-old Kansan has done best with during the GOP primary season.

"Dole would give in to the more extreme element of the Republican Party and would allow much of the (social) safety net to be taken away," Allentown computer salesman Paul Marmon told the Associated Press. "I feel better to go the way Clinton is trying to get the country to go."

What gives? The Keystone State's mostly rural population of 12 million often votes Republican. Gov. Tom Ridge is a Republican and an ardent Dole supporter. But the state, and most of its elderly voters, went with Clinton in 1992.

Older voters may worry about GOP intentions for Medicare and Social Security, unconvinced by the Kansan's pledge to "do better in preserving those programs." Dole, in fact, does best with 18-24 year olds, who were statistically split between Dole and Clinton in the Keystone poll.

Still, old and young credit Dole for experience and character. "He's a man of integrity," said 60-something Olwen Louden of Drexel Hills. "You can believe what he says." Though the race should tighten considerably, what Dole has been saying, publicly and privately, is that Pennsylvania will be a tough battleground next fall.

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