Big Mood Swings Common In Presidential Politics

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, May 8) -- If a human patient suffered mood swings this extreme, a doctor would probably prescribe medication.

But the patient, in this case, is the American electorate. And for the President Bill Clinton's re-election team, riding high these days with a double-digit lead in the polls, it's worth remembering that large shifts in public opinion are frequent in presidential politics.

Four years ago at this time, President George Bush was first in the polls, followed by Texan Ross Perot and in third place, Bill Clinton, who was still trying to clinch the Democratic nomination. In 1988, Michael Dukakis enjoyed a brief lead after the Democratic convention, only to lose badly to Bush in the fall.

White House spokesman Mike McCurry likened the poll numbers to a swinging pendulum.

"In the inevitable pendulum, you know, swinging back and forth, the pendulum on our side is stretched all the way out here and you can hear the cable groaning and it's about to snap back and hit us in the face," McCurry said.

GOP pollster Frank Luntz told the Associated Press' Tom Raum that this is a volatile time for the voters.

"Voters are completely unanchored this early in the election process," Luntz said. "The great swings take place in April, May, June, July and August. Things start to smooth out in September."

Big shifts in public opinion sometimes result from the normal ebb and flow of political campaigns. Voters learn more, new issues emerge and people change their minds.

Sometimes the presidential debates -- this year in late September and early October -- can crysallize the decision of swing voters.

Big Mood Swings Common In Presidential Politics

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