New Poll Suggests Dole Bounce Temporary

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, June 20) -- President Bill Clinton, buffeted by bad news on Whitewater and the FBI files flap, still enjoys a double-digit lead over GOP rival Bob Dole, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.

If the Nov. 5 election were held today, 57 percent of people said they would choose the president, compared to 38 percent who favor Dole, the likely Republican nominee. Five percent picked neither or had no opinion.

The new poll suggests that if Dole won any boost in popularity from quitting the Senate, it was remarkably short-lived. Last week, a CNN/TIME Poll taken immediately after Dole resigned showed a much smaller six-percentage point lead for Clinton.

The numbers are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,004 adults, including 859 registered voters, on June 18 and 19. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points for the entire sample, and +/- 4 percentage points for registered voters.

No one knows yet if the November race will be a two-way Clinton-Dole matchup, or whether a third-party candidate might become a factor. If Ross Perot runs as the Reform Party's candidate, Clinton would lead with 49 percent, followed by Dole at 33 percent and Perot at 17 percent.

While poll numbers released this afternoon suggest Clinton's lead has rebounded to mid-May levels, there is some bad news in the survey for the administration on Whitewater and the FBI file flap.

A full 57 percent of all Americans believe that Hillary Rodham Clinton has participated in a cover-up of the Whitewater scandal and related matters.

Fifty-seven percent also believe that White House staffers deliberately did something they knew was improper when they requested FBI background files on former government employees. Only 24 percent of the public believes it was an honest mistake, as Clinton has insisted.

By a narrow 47-41 percent margin, the public thinks Republicans serving on the Senate Whitewater committee acted responsibly. Democrats have accused Republicans on the committee of gross partisanship in conducting the Whitewater hearings and in the final report released Tuesday.

One-third of the public thinks Hillary Rodham Clinton did something illegal in Whitewater or related matters; another 36 percent say she did something unethical, but not illegal. Only 25 percent say she did nothing wrong.

The public is more forgiving of her husband: 31 percent say he did nothing wrong, and 21 percent say he did something illegal. That difference is reflected in the First Couple's favorable ratings: 60 percent have a favorable opinion of Bill Clinton, while only 46 percent feel favorably toward Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Why is Clinton's favorable rating high and his lead in the polls in double digits?

According to the survey, 52 percent say Whitewater allegations are not relevant to Clinton's ability to serve as president. Only 43 percent say they are important indicators of his character and ability to serve in the White House.

Still, doubts about Clinton's character linger. By a 49-46 percent, the public says that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. In contrast, 62 percent describe Dole as honest and trustworthy, and 52 percent say Dole has a higher moral character than Clinton. Nonetheless, 62 percent say that Clinton has the honesty and integrity to serve as president.

What has given Clinton his lead? His embrace of several "values" issues that Republicans once called their own, like welfare reform and violence on TV, appears to have worked.

For the first time in two years, a majority -- 53 percent -- say that Clinton shares their values. A slightly smaller number say that about Dole. And two-thirds say that Clinton cares about the needs of people like them; only 47 percent say that about Dole.

New Poll Suggests Dole Bounce Temporary

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