The Veepstakes: Will History Repeat Itself?

WASHINGTON (July 17) -- With his campaign floundering, the pressure is on for Robert Dole to turn things around with his selection of a running mate. That decision always tells the voters something important about a candidate.

Sometimes it's something good, but other times, it's something bad.

In 1960, John Kennedy kept his own counsel. He stood up to big labor and chose his rival for the nomination, Lyndon Johnson, a man with his own power base. That made Kennedy look secure.

George McGovern sent the opposite message in 1972. He let others dominate the decision, and the last-minute, haphazard choice of Tom Eagleton turned out to be a disaster. McGovern stood 1,000 percent behind his choice, then dumped him. The message? McGovern was weak, indecisive and not in control.

In 1976, Gerald Ford's choice of Dole was intended to reassure conservatives after the bruising fight between Ford and Ronald Reagan. "Bob Dole will help to heal any divisiveness within the party," Ford said. (64K WAV sound)

The message? Ford looked defensive.

When Ronald Reagan got the nomination in 1980, he publicly considered putting Ford on the ticket. Ford, a former president, was clearly in the "mainstream" where Reagan wanted to be. So was his eventual choice of George Bush. "What I will be doing is emphasizing the common ground; I will be enthusiastically supporting this Republican platform," Bush said. (128K WAV sound)

The message? It was one of reassurance.

Walter Mondale engaged in a painfully public search process in 1984. The various contenders -- three women, two African Americans, one Hispanic and a white male -- all made the pilgrimage to be interviewed by the nominee. Critics called it pandering, a cattle show.

Mondale's eventual choice of Geraldine Ferraro was marred by the fact that women's rights groups had been pressuring him to do it. "I looked for the best vice president and I found her in Gerry Ferraro," Mondale said. (160K WAV sound)

The message? Mondale was an interest-group liberal who could be pushed around.

George Bush wanted to generate suspense and excitement with his choice of a running mate in 1988. "The next vice-president of the United States, Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana," said Bush, when he introduced his surprise choice. (96K WAV sound)

He got a lot more than he bargained for. Quayle's qualifications and stature became instant campaign issues and raised questions about Bush's judgment.

This year, Dole has to convey several messages in his choice of a running mate.

First, he has to choose someone seen as unquestionably qualified to become president if necessary. Bush got away with the choice of Quayle, but a 73-year old candidate can't do that.

Second, Dole needs excitement, not balance. He needs someone who sharpens his message, the way Al Gore did Clinton's.

Third, Dole can't let it look like he's being pushed around the way McGovern, Ford and Mondale were. Dole has said he would not rule out a running mate who supports abortion rights.

The message? Conservatives will have input, but not veto power over the choice.

This story originally appeared on CNN's "Inside Politics."

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The Veepstakes: Will History Repeat Itself?

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