Better Ads For A Better Candidate?

SAN DIEGO (Aug. 16) -- Poor no more. The Dole-Kemp campaign sets off on the road to the White House with millions in fresh cash, and a bold media strategy for winning.

"The ads are going to be about the differences between Bob Dole and Jack Kemp and the Clinton Administration, about cutting taxes, about increasing the family income, about optimism, and I think those are going to be very powerful ads," said Dole-Kemp communications coordinator Mike Murphy.

Those TV ads start soon. Some will use bits from Dole's convention film biography. "It's a matter of philosophy, it's a matter of direction, it's a matter of leadership -- it's about our America," Dole says in the video.

Also, look for some not-so-positive ads like the Republican party "Pledge" ad from July showing Bill Clinton saying, "We've got to get middle-class tax relief no matter what we do." Then an announcer says, "Six months later he gave us the largest tax increase in history."

Dole ads will use the president's own words against him. The RNC's "Even More Talk" ad, played on the big screens at the Republican convention, cuts between Clinton's differing estimates of how long he needs to balance the budget.

"I would present a five year plan to balance the budget ... we could do it in seven years ... I think we could reach it in nine years ... balance the budget in 10 years ...."

Murphy said, "I think Bill Clinton's worst enemy in this campaign is video tape."

Some Dole ads will run on national network television, but most will be targeted on pretty much the same states (California, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and West Virginia) where the Republican party ran those early ads. Money spent in states Dole is sure to lose, or win, is wasted.

"Republicans have about 175 electoral votes locked up," said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. "They need another 95 -- and there are maybe 15 states that are really in play."

Financially, Dole is on a level playing field now. His campaign just got nearly $62 million from the U.S. Treasury, and the party can legally kick in $12 million more -- a total budget of nearly $74 million, and the same as President Clinton's.

Dole aides say they plan to spend a bundle in California -- the biggest state, with 54 electoral votes. "It's clearly a multi-million dollar endeavor to contest California, but we're going to do it," said Murphy.

That's risky. Dole is far behind in California.

"It's just not a rational strategy on their part to put all their money into a state that's going to be very hard to win and giving up states that perhaps they have a much better shot at," said Prof. Gary Jacobson of the University of California, San Diego.

Dole won't spend much in New York, which has 33 electoral votes. It's so Democratic it's too much of a long shot even for a team with Buffalo's ex-quarterback.

Neither side is putting much into Texas, either, which has 32 electoral votes. It's a Republican stronghold. Democrats are spending heavily in Florida, but Dole doesn't plan to, even though 25 electoral votes are at stake.

"I think Florida is gonna come back strong," said Murphy.

Spending heavily on California and leaving Florida lightly defended would be a huge gamble. But Dole leaves the convention so far behind in the polls that all the safe bets may be sure losers.

This story originally appeared on CNN's "Inside Politics."

Better Ads For A Better Candidate?

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