Looking For Portents Amid The Fluff

By Bill Schneider/CNN

(AllPolitics, Aug. 25) -- The recent Republican National Convention was successful, despite its lack of news or substantial information. It gave Bob Dole's campaign a much-needed boost and helped increase his ratings, if only for a short period.

Despite its lack of news, the GOP convention will stand as the model for political conventions for some time to come.

And as the Democrats converge in Chicago to put on their own show, one has to ask: Why watch? Is there anything to look for?

Of course, there is. Maybe not news exactly, but signs and portents for the future. Such as:

Will liberals swallow welfare reform? While Republicans finessed the abortion issue, can democrats finesse welfare reform, an issue that has caused division between congressional Democrats?

President Bill Clinton will propose programs to create jobs for people forced off the welfare rolls. Watch closely to see if liberals buy it.

What kind of tax cut will Clinton propose?

What is Clinton's agenda for the next four years? He says his acceptance speech will be a second state of the union address. He has to convince voters that the status quo is pretty good, but also acknowledge the social and economic anxieties that are out there, and tell us what to do about them.

Will the Democrats claim the deficit as their issue? It's not a natural issue for them. In fact, the deficit has never been a winning issue for anybody. Not Paul Tsongas, not Ross Perot, not Phil Gramm.

Nevertheless, the Democrats will find it hard to resist flaunting their credentials on deficit-reduction, especially as a way to appeal to Perot voters.

Who are the top Democratic contenders for the year 2000? The jockeying begins in earnest at this convention. Al Gore is at the top of the list. Listen to his acceptance speech, and see if he begins to carve out his own agenda.

Also competing for the spotlight are Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and retiring Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey.

How much energy will Clinton expend on regaining control of Congress? Congressional Democrats will be eager to latch on to Clinton's newfound popularity. The question is whether Clinton is still in "triangulation" mode, seeking to keep his distance from congressional Democrats.

Can the Democrats demonize Dole? Neither Dole nor his running mate, Jack Kemp, is a particularly ripe target, unlike Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. How much Republican bashing will we have heard by the end of the Democratic convention?

Can First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton outclass Elizabeth Dole? In Chicago, all eyes will be on Hillary. Her job is to do exactly what Elizabeth Dole did at the Republican convention: sell her husband's political agenda, not her own.

Democrats have to show the voters they've got something new to offer. Why? Because Dole is now doing best among young voters. Clinton is doing best among older voters.

Democrats may have the younger candidate, but they also have the older message.

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