Dole Hopes To Create New Game

By Thomas H. Moore/AllPolitics

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, Oct. 15) -- Tonight's debate is a whole new ballgame. The game changed Tuesday when GOP nominee Bob Dole let loose a withering attack on President Bill Clinton's "public ethics" in a speech outside San Diego.

The first debate, held Oct. 6 in Hartford, Conn., was a pleasant affair, with the two candidates expressing their respect for each other even while forcefully arguing differing sides of most issues. That debate got Dole nowhere in the polls.

The encounter three days later between vice presidential nominees Jack Kemp and Al Gore was also a model of civility. It got Dole nowhere in the polls.

And as he heads into the last three weeks of the campaign, Dole can't afford to go nowhere for much longer.

So, it appears Dole's going for broke. He's betting everything on his ability to walk the tightrope between swinging at Clinton with a flyswatter and swinging at him with a hatchet. Dole has to damage Clinton severely, but smile while he's doing it.

There's at least one problem: tonight's debate uses the "town hall" format, which lends itself to folksy answers, a warm presence and feeling the pain of others. It's a format Clinton suggested in 1992, and it plays to his strengths.

It's hard to be negative in the town hall; the candidates respond to questions from the audience, which is made up of uncommitted voters, not diehard partisans.

In 1992, the first time this format was used, the questions didn't invite negativity. In fact, several people asked the candidates to rule out such tactics. "Can we focus on the issues and not the personalities and the mud?" asked one townsperson.

Another said, "The amount of time the candidates have spent in this campaign trashing their opponents' character and their programs is depressingly large. Why can't your discussions and proposals reflect the genuine complexity and the difficulty of the issues to try to build a consensus around the best aspects of all proposals?"

There's no reason to think tonight's questions will be much different.

Which means Dole's options are limited: Given his attempts to overcome his reputation as a hatchet man, it's risky for him to take an issues-based question and appear to turn it into a character attack. As analysts have been saying for the last few weeks, all it would take is one "gasp" out of the audience after Dole goes on the attack to finish him.

Clinton has brushed off Dole's new approach so far, and will probably continue to do so. The tightrope he'll walk tonight is between being aloof to Dole's charges and getting dragged down into their details. Clinton will most likely speak directly to the audience's concerns, and ignore Dole's points as much as he can.

Dole's shift in tactics is risky only to a limited extent. The worst he can do is lose the election, which he may do if he emphasizes character issues, but which he was almost definitely going to do if he kept his current course.

The question of whether Dole can pull off the shift will be answered tonight. The question of whether even a successful shift can help him will be answered soon after.

Dole Hopes To Create New Game

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