No Longer Ascendant, GOP Hopes To Keep Majority

By Juliana Gruenwald and Deborah Kalb/Congressional Quarterly

WASHINGTON (Oct. 22) -- Swept into control of Congress in 1994, House Republicans began the 104th Congress with an air of invincibility that now seems a memory. Less than two years later, House Republicans face the possibility, if not yet the likelihood, that a resurgent Democratic Party will recapture control.

Democrats appear certain to pick up some seats this fall, despite repeated Republican predictions that their own party will make an additional net gain of between 15 and 25 seats Nov. 5.

By blasting the Republican record on such issues as Medicare, education and the environment, Democrats are trying to seize the center in the political debate. They have been aided in that endeavor by President Bill Clinton, who is riding a wave of economic good news in his re-election bid against Republican nominee Bob Dole.

These factors, coupled with the vulnerability of an unusually large and ideologically doctrinaire freshman class, have brought the Democratic minority within reach of reclaiming the House.

Striking distance may be as close as they can get, though. An ill-timed tide of 29 Democratic retirements, including 19 in the increasingly Republican South, is likely to provide enough Republican takeaways to keep the GOP in control.

Still, it is an election that has even professional prognosticators buckling at the knees.

William F. Connelly, a political scientist at Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Va., said the GOP will "probably retain the majority" but quickly added: "This appears to be one of the most unpredictable elections."

In 1994, a Congressional Quarterly survey of all 435 House races found 147 races competitive, an unusually high number.

But this year's CQ survey found 174 seats, or two out of five, to be competitive (not safe for either party).

Such a large number of competitive seats makes the current Republican margin of majority look slender indeed.

Democrats would need to capture a net of just 19 seats to win back control, a far smaller number than the net gain of 40 seats Republicans needed in 1994 (when they captured a net total of 52).

Democrats are already guaranteed at least one pickup. In Louisiana's 7th District, which Republican Jimmy Hayes gave up to make an unsuccessful run in the state's all-party Senate primary, two Democrats have advanced to a runoff to take place on Nov. 5.

(Candidates in Louisiana run on the same ballot in the primary and contenders who receive a majority of the vote are automatically elected. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, compete in a runoff to determine the winner.)

Points To Ponder

The CQ survey this fall found that:

More Republicans appear to be in serious trouble this fall than Democrats. Seventeen Republican incumbents are in races that appear too close to call, compared with five Democratic incumbents similarly stressed.

In even bigger trouble are four Republican incumbents who appear to trail their Democratic opponents. Three of them, Reps. Michael Patrick Flanagan of Illinois, Fred Heineman of North Carolina and James B. Longley Jr. of Maine, were elected in 1994. The fourth, Martin R. Hoke of Ohio, is in his second term. No Democratic incumbents are clearly underdogs for re-election.

Overall, 75 Republican incumbents are in competitive races while only 56 Democratic incumbents find themselves in similar jeopardy.

Of the 53 open seats (with no incumbent on the ballot), 42 are considered competitive: 25 are currently held by Democrats, 17 by Republicans.

Clinton A Factor

In 1994, Republicans benefited from many factors, but none more than the unpopularity of Clinton and the hamstrung leadership of the Democrat-controlled 103rd Congress.

In numerous races, Republicans nationalized the elections, linking their Democratic opponents with Clinton and tarring incumbents for votes in favor of the 1994 crime bill (which included a partial ban on assault weapons) and the 1993 budget-reconciliation bill (a deficit-reduction plan that included tax increases).

But Clinton has rebounded and appears stronger than ever, in part because he succeeded in casting himself as a brake on the excesses of Republicans who gained control of Congress in those 1994 elections. When the House GOP defied Clinton's vetoes and forced two partial shutdowns of the federal government last fall and winter, polls showed the public siding with the White House and against the leadership of Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.

Since then, on issues from the minimum wage to immigration and welfare reform, Clinton has been able to position himself as a centrist who moderated the tendencies of Hill Republicans.

"It helps (House Democrats) that the president is doing well at the top of the ticket," said David W. Moore, managing editor of the Gallup Poll.

Adds James G. Whitney, communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), "President Clinton continues to be very helpful to Democratic candidates. . . . I think he can be very helpful in a place like Washington state."

Republicans won six Democratic-held seats in Washington in 1994, five of which they took from incumbents. This year, Democrats are hoping Clinton, who carried the state by 11 percentage points in 1992, will help them reverse their 1994 losses. While all six of the freshmen are in competitive races, three of the six -- Reps. Linda Smith, Randy Tate and Rick White -- are in contests that are at this point considered too close to call.

If Clinton scores resounding victories over Dole in some states where House seats are in play, "that could have a drastic effect on some House Republicans," Connelly said.

Gingrich As Icon

House Democrats also have seen their own public standing improve since the 1994 blowout. In recent months, they have often led in the so-called generic congressional ballot test, which asks voters, without naming particular candidates, if they would choose a Democrat or Republican for the House this year.

Moore said his organization's latest tracking polls showed a generic House Democrat with a 10 percentage point lead over the generic Republican. Other surveys, however, that also ask this question have shown the gap to be much closer and even given the Republicans a slight lead at some points.

Moore said that given Democratic performance in the generic ballot test and other factors, he believes Democrats have a good chance to win back control of the House.

Phil Sharp, a former Democratic congressman from Indiana who now heads the Institute of Politics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, believes the "passion" this year is on the Democratic side, unlike in 1994.

"The Democrats have been able to capitalize on quite specific things, policy things," said Sharp, pointing to such issues as Medicare and the environment. But Sharp still calls the House outcome a "tossup."

"If I had to bet," Sharp said. "I would say the Republicans are going to hold it by a slim majority."

In numerous races throughout the country, Democrats have turned the tables on the Republicans and are using national themes to tarnish their GOP opponents, even the non-incumbents.

In Kentucky's 1st District, GOP freshman Edward Whitfield's opponent, Democratic lawyer Dennis Null, is hammering the incumbent with the typical Democratic charge that the incumbent voted to "cut" Medicare. Whitfield has shot back by saying he has attempted to save Medicare.

The same interchange has been replayed countless times around the nation through the summer and fall.

In 1994, Republicans used Clinton as a negative symbol and bogeyman to drive their voters to the polls. This year, it is the Democrats who have sought to link their GOP opponents to Gingrich, whose poll ratings plummeted late in 1995 and have never entirely recovered.

Even relatively moderate Republicans, such as second-term Reps. Peter G. Torkildsen and Peter I. Blute of Massachusetts, are being tied to Gingrich by their Democratic opponents. In fact, Blute's opponent, Jim McGovern, is running an ad rhyming "Newt" and "Blute." The TV ad asks, "If you wouldn't vote for Newt, why would you ever vote for Blute?"

And in Wisconsin's Madison-based 2nd District, Republican Rep. Scott L. Klug has attempted to pre-empt any potential negative impact from his Democratic opponent's charges that he has embraced Gingrich and the Republican agenda.

Klug, who has carefully cultivated a moderate image since being elected from the traditionally Democratic district in 1990, has made a television ad himself that changes Klug's own picture into Gingrich's, then back into Klug's. In the ad, an announcer tells viewers that while they may have heard a lot of talk that Klug and Gingrich are the same, "the next time someone tells you Scott Klug is Newt Gingrich, tell them they've got the wrong picture."

Labor's Return

Democrats also have been aided this year by the $35 million effort being waged by the AFL-CIO to help Democrats, whom they see as much more friendly to the needs of organized labor, win back control of the House.

The AFL-CIO is primarily targeting Republican incumbents, particularly freshmen who appear most vulnerable. AFL-CIO officials say that many of the proposals pushed by Republicans would be detrimental to working families.

In Maine's 1st District, freshman Republican Longley claims the AFL-CIO has run more than $1 million worth of ads against him. Freshman Republican Rep. Dick Chrysler, who represents Michigan's 8th District -- an area with a substantial union presence -- is also among the many GOP freshmen being targeted by the AFL-CIO's ad campaign.

But Republicans are running ads of their own defending their record on issues such as Medicare and lashing out at organized labor. "The ad campaign we are doing to counter the union bosses' campaign is having an effect," said Craig Veith, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

In addition, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is leading a $4 million effort in the business community to help some of the Republicans targeted by the AFL-CIO ad campaign.

Playing Defense

After being criticized for crafting a right-wing agenda, much of which was vetoed by Clinton, Republicans can point to some big achievements, including passage of a telecommunications bill, legislation to overhaul the welfare system, a revamping of the nation's agriculture programs, legislation to improve protections for public water supplies and a bill guaranteeing health insurance portability.

Many of these initiatives were passed in 1996 and were seen in some cases as efforts to shore up the GOP's standing among the public. "Things are continuing to shape up well for us," said the NRCC's Veith, who added that having Republican members out of Washington and back on the campaign trail helps the GOP. "Republican races are closing and pulling ahead," he said.

In addition, Republicans could benefit from the large number of Democratic open seats in play this fall, and the increasingly Republican proclivities of the South.

"My expectation is that nationally, the Democrats will make some gains, but in the South, the Republicans will pick up a few seats," said political science Professor Charles Bullock of the University of Georgia.

Just how many seats the GOP picks up in Dixie could be crucial. Republicans have been counting on making big gains in the South, particularly among the seats being vacated by retiring Democrats. Of the 42 open-seat races this year that are not considered safe for one party, 18 are in the South and 16 are in districts now held by Democrats.

For example, Republican Charles W. "Chip" Pickering Jr. is expected to pick up the Mississippi 3rd District seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. G. V. "Sonny" Montgomery. In the Fort Worth-based 12th District in Texas, Republican Kay Granger has the edge in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Pete Geren.

But Republicans may fall short of their goals in other open Democratic districts in the South. For example, Republicans targeted Alabama's 4th District, from which Democratic Rep. Tom Bevill is retiring. But despite the GOP's efforts, most polls show Democrat Bob Wilson Jr. leading his Republican opponent, Robert Aderholt.

"Republicans predicted huge increases in the South," the DCCC's Whitney said. But "if you look at the races, it's just not materializing."

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