Open Governorships Provide A Measure of Suspense

By Alan Greenblatt/Congressional Quarterly

WASHINGTON (CQ, Oct. 24) -- If House, Senate and presidential contests have been the three-ring circus of American politics this year, gubernatorial races have been more of a sideshow.

"When you have gubernatorial elections during a presidential year, often what is going on there gets smothered," said Thad L. Beyle, a specialist in gubernatorial politics at the University of North Carolina.

Beyle said that most states have removed their governors races from presidential years to avoid having local candidates drowned out by the quadrennial roar of national elections.

One result of this shift is that President Clinton, no matter how well he might do, will have scant opportunity to help his party at the statehouse level this year. Democrats have lost a net of 13 governorships since he took office in 1993 and will have to wait until 1998 or beyond to begin their long climb back to majority status.

In yet another illustration of how incumbency dominates the 1996 landscape more than any one issue or ideology, the four open governorships are all competitive, to various degrees, while the incumbents in both parties are on cruise control from coast to coast.

Only 11 states will select governors Nov. 5, and even Democratic officials concede that they have next to no chance at unseating any of the three GOP governors seeking re-election in Montana, Utah and North Dakota.

GOP Gov. Marc Racicot won his key to the Montana governor's mansion with just 51 percent of the vote in 1992. He now enjoys a huge lead in polls and recently received the highest job performance rating of any governor in the country.

Democrats are likely to prevail in the four states where they have incumbents running (North Carolina, Missouri, Delaware and Vermont). But they have to defend three open statehouses (Indiana, Washington, and West Virginia), while the Republicans must defend only one (New Hampshire). Hoosier Cliffhanger

Democratic Gov. Evan Bayh of Indiana is barred by law from seeking a third term, and at the start of the year, this race appeared to be Republican Stephen Goldsmith's to lose. But the Indianapolis mayor may in fact have made enough mistakes and been sufficiently buffeted by events to hand a victory to Democratic Lt. Gov. Frank L. O'Bannon.

Goldsmith's main troubles are mostly beyond his control. Investigations stemming from an Aug. 27 brawl in downtown Indianapolis (in which drunken city policemen verbally accosted and beat citizens) have led to questions about Goldsmith's management of the city and kept his campaign off-message and off-balance.

To make matters worse, Goldsmith's ads attacking O'Bannon for supporting tax increases while in the state Senate were widely criticized by state media outlets for inaccuracy. Polls indicate that they are one of the top reasons voters support O'Bannon.

After leading O'Bannon by double digits into the summer, Goldsmith now trails by a statistically insignificant margin.

O'Bannon has been basking in the glow of his popular boss, Bayh, and taking credit for the state's robust economy and budget surplus, which he says will fund a small tax break during his administration.

Goldsmith, whom O'Bannon joshingly called "Mr. Privatization" in an Oct. 7 debate, has been a leader in contracting out Indianapolis services and says he will do the same at the state level, arguing that the state has too much bureaucracy.

Eye Opener in New Hampshire

Democrats have rarely had a better shot at the top job in this state, which has had Democratic governors in only four of the past 28 years. The current Republican incumbent, two-term Gov. Stephen Merrill, opted not to seek re-election this year despite a popular tenure in office.

State Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic nominee this fall, is doing well in part because she appears to have greater coverage on the key issue of taxes than other recent Democratic nominees. With that beginning, she may be able to convince voters that she is more in sync with them than Republican Ovide Lamontagne.

She has pledged to veto a broad-based sales or income tax. But she remains open to the idea of legalizing video poker and raising cigarette taxes to fund schools (proposals that previously have failed in the state General Court). She said she would insist that any money so raised be given over directly to localities to fund primary education.

Lamontagne has drawn some fire for siding with social conservatives who are opposed to "Goals 2000," a federal program that offers states education grants to meet a set of national standards, in his former capacity as chairman of the state Board of Education.

He takes a harder line against tax increases than Shaheen and adds, "On social issues, she's clearly a liberal." Lamontagne opposes abortion rights, which Shaheen supports. He trumpets the endorsements of law enforcement officers and contends that Shaheen is too soft on crime.

In response to Lamontagne's statements that she favors broad government control of health care, Shaheen said that she instead supports an incremental approach, claiming a key role in the enactment of a state law that mirrors and anticipated the Kassebaum-Kennedy legislation on pre-existing conditions.

'Christian Radical' in Northwest

Washington state's Democratic Gov. Mike Lowry decided not to seek a second term following a long battle over sexual harassment allegations. King County (Seattle) Executive Gary Locke, the Democratic nominee, appears to be in good shape against Republican former state Sen. Ellen Craswell, although there are signs that the race may be tightening.

Locke is of Chinese descent and would become the first Asian-American governor on the nation's mainland if elected.

A former state legislator, he was chairman of the state House Budget Committee before winning his current post and is widely viewed as an expert on fiscal issues. But his onetime support for a state income tax -- a position he has since recanted -- has caused him grief as the fall campaign has warmed up.

Locke is media savvy and seeks the limelight at every opportunity. Craswell, by contrast, has run close to the ground and relied almost exclusively on monthly financial contributions from individuals. She has used no media advertising, depending on billboards, yard signs, and public appearances to broaden her exposure.

Craswell argues that state and federal governments should not be involved in education and that all schools should be operated on a tuition basis.

Locke, an ardent supporter of education throughout his political career, has strong support from teachers' groups in the state.

Craswell's unabashed outspokenness about religion has caused some discomfort in the generally moderate state, even among Republicans. Craswell has described herself as a "radical" and has vowed to hire only "wise and Godly people" as aides if she wins the race. She listed God at the top of her campaign's organizational chart.

But she may find some appeal among secular as well as religious voters with her promise to repeal more than one-third of all state taxes and cut 30 percent of the state budget.

Bucking Mountain Tradition

Democratic Gov. Gaston Caperton of West Virginia is leaving office after filling his quota of two terms. Democratic former state Sen. Charlotte Pritt is hoping her party's huge lead in registration will propel her past Republican former Gov. Cecil Underwood.

Underwood previously served from 1957 to 1961 and was the youngest governor in the state's history. Underwood, who will turn 74 on Election Day, would be the state's oldest chief executive if re-elected.

Some voters have expressed concerns about his age, but his seniority may also have contributed to his cross-party support among his contemporaries. Similarly, Pritt's status as the first woman nominated for governor in state history has attracted some women Republicans while giving pause to some male Democrats.

More than twice as many people participated in the Democratic gubernatorial primary May 14 than in the Republican primary the same day. So, to siphon off Democratic votes, Underwood is borrowing a page from the playbook of Pritt's leading primary opponent, who castigated her as a pawn of mining and public employees unions.

Pritt, a coal miner's daughter, does enjoy financial backing from unions, as well as EMILY's List. She promises to revisit the state workers' compensation formula to make it more favorable to workers.

Although Pritt has made more of an effort in recent weeks to reach out to business groups, Underwood enjoys the bulk of support in that sector. He has spent much of his career sitting on commissions that looked at ways of attracting modern technology and businesses to the state.

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