Shift in Voter Mood Is Key To Incumbents' Fortunes

By Ronald D. Elving

CAMPAIGN '96: Though some dissatisfaction still persists, economic outlook and late-session legislation may ease electorate anger

With the elections of 1996 little more than a fortnight away, incumbency appears suddenly to be back in style.

For just the second time in 24 years, an incumbent president looks likely to extend his lease on the White House. President Clinton has many detractors and inspires a particularly fervid form of contempt among some. But his overall approval ratings have recently approached the highest levels of his presidency, demonstrating once again that timing is the premier virtue in politics.

For that matter, the outlook for the great majority of Senate and House incumbents is also remarkably roseate.

Of the 20 Republican and Democratic incumbents seeking re- election to the Senate, only two in each party are in obvious danger of defeat (and each of them could still win). Most of the action in Senate races comes in states where incumbents chose to retire rather than run.

In the House, the latest Congressional Quarterly survey considers 34 races too close to call; but most of those contests are close because the incumbent is retiring or because the incumbent is a Republican freshman in a district that will be voting Democratic for most other offices Nov. 5.

More than one-third of the 73 members of the GOP Class of 1994 have good reason to be anxious. Many have been under bombardment by an AFL-CIO negative advertising campaign since early spring, and it is possible that heavy losses among the freshman class will key a return to Democratic control. But setting the GOP first-termers aside, the remaining House incumbents of both parties will probably enjoy a re-election rate reminiscent of the re-election festivals of the 1980s.

Who would have thought that Clinton would rebound so well from his midterm doldrums? For that matter, who expected House Republicans to bounce back so well after two government shutdowns caused their public approval to plummet?

Clearly, the improving fortunes of Washington incumbents owe much to the state of the economy and to the willingness of both congressional leaders and the president to cooperate in a late flurry of legislative action.

In the summer and early fall, the 104th Congress added to its already significant legislative handiwork (including budget reductions, a farm program overhaul and a sweeping telecommunications bill) by clearing a drinking water protection bill, a popular health insurance reform, new rules for welfare and a package of tax cuts for small business combined with a minimum wage increase.

Memories of past pay raises and House bank scandals have faded somewhat, and the clamor for term limits has subsided as congressional turnover has increased (most of the current House was first elected in 1990 or later).

Gone are the waves of rage that greeted electioneering politicians in 1992 (when the House got its biggest turnover since 1948) and in 1994 (when the Democrats lost control of the House for the first time in 40 years).

Pockets of frustration and protest persist, and more people still tell pollsters the country is on "the wrong track" than say it is headed "in the right direction."

But when asked about the economy, in particular, 72 percent of the respondents in a CBS News-New York Times poll this month rated it very good or fairly good.

In short, the pervasive sense of anger has subsided, and individual members of Congress can go home and defend themselves in their own terms. That is how incumbents win.

THE PRESIDENT

Three of the previous four presidents lost their bids for another term. Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980 and Bush in 1992 all lost. Reagan won in 1984.
If Clinton wins Nov. 5, he would be the first Democrat since Roosevelt in 1936 to win a second full term.
Democrats last held the White House for two consecutive terms in the 1960s, with Kennedy (1961-'63) and Johnson (1963-'69).
55 percent of the voting-age population cast ballots in 1992, the highest turnout rate for any presidential election since 1972.

THE GOVERNORS

Republicans currently control 32 governorships, Democrats 17. (Angus King of Maine is the only independent)
11 states are electing governors Nov. 5.
7 governorships on the ballot are held by Democrats.
When Bill Clinton became president in January 1993, Democrats held 30 governorships.

THE SENATE

Republicans currently control the Senate, 53-47.
34 seats are on the ballot.
19 seats on the ballot are now held by Republicans; 15 by Democrats.
13 senators are retiring; 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans.
Appointed Sen. Sheila Frahm, R-Kan., was defeated for her party nomination.
12 seats on the ballot are in the South (4 open); 8 are in the Midwest (4 open); 7 are in the North (3 open); 7 in the West (3 open).

THE HOUSE

All 435 seats are on the ballot.
Republicans now hold 235 seats, Democrats 197 (there are two vacancies and one independent).
53 House districts have no incumbent on the ballot.
174 House races are rated by CQ as competitive.
75 Republican incumbents are in competitive races.
56 Democratic incumbents are in competitive races.
22 Republican-held districts are too close to call.
12 Democratic-held districts are too close to call.

ELECTION YEAR/GALLUP POLLS

The Gallup Poll regularly asks respondents whether or not they approve of the "way the president is handling his job." The poll also conducts regular "trial heats" testing respondents' intent to vote for the incumbent president of his major party challenger. The chart below shows the May approval rating (six months before the November election) and the early October trial-heat vote share for all full-term presidents who have sought re-election since World War II.

President             May      Early-October    Actual
  Year              Approval    Trial Heat      Share

Truman (won)           39%         40%            50%
1948

Eisenhower (won)       69          51             57
1956

Nixon (won)            62          60             61
1972

Carter (lost)          43          44             41
1980

Reagan (won)           52          56             59
1984

Bush (lost)            40          35             37
1992

Clinton                55          54


"GOOD NUMBERS" GO UP

Consumer Confidence (Sources: Conference Board, Dow Jones)
 1992:  57.3
 1996: 111.8

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Figures compare high points
                              for October)
 1992: 3254
 1996: 6010



"BAD NUMBERS" GO DOWN OR STAY DOWN

Unemployment (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
 1992: 7.6%
 1996: 5.2%

Inflation (Figures represent data as of mid-October)
 1992: 3.0%
 1996: 3.0%

© 1996, Congressional Quarterly Inc. All rights reserved.

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