Winds of Change Blow Across New Hampshire

By Bruce Morton/CNN

HENNIKER, N.H. (Oct. 28) -- After years of rock-ribbed conservatism, the tides of change are blowing across New Hampshire with the red and yellow fall leaves.

Sen. Bob Smith thinks he'll get re-elected because Republicans put off by last winter's bitter presidential primary are coming home.

"As these Republicans come back and vote for Bob Dole, and come back and vote, they will vote for the Republican ticket and the other numbers will move," Smith says.

His opponent, Dick Swett, is out shaking hands, campaigning hard. "How are you today? I just wanted to tell you, I'm running for the U.S. Senate, appreciate your consideration," he told parents at a recent soccer match.

Swett, a two-term Democratic congressman who was swept out in the Republican surge of 1994, thinks he'll win because New Hampshire voters are "realizing that the Republicans were turning their backs on senior citizens, on education, on women's issues..."

Smith, whom critics call "Three Bill Bob" for the number of bills he introduced, is strongly anti-abortion, once brandishing a plastic fetus on the floor of the Senate as he campaigned against a controversial form of abortion. "Its face is formed, its arms, toes, fingers," Smith said.

Clinton, who won here last time and probably will again, has campaigned for Swett. "Senate races are much more susceptible to national tides than House races are, just generally across the country, and Bob Smith in many ways is a fairly weak candidate for this state," says Linda Fowler of Dartmouth College.

In a televised debate, Swett blasted Smith for having voted for a Congressional pay raise. "My opponent is more conservative than Newt Gingrich," Swett said. "He voted against Medicare, school lunches and child care, but he had no trouble voting himself a $23,000 pay raise."

Smith said Swett was taking too many out-of-state contributions. "Having 90 percent, 95 percent of your income for your campaign coming from out of state is wrong," Smith said. "I don't think New Hampshire's for sale."

Smith and Swett are fighting amid the dappled dazzle of autumn, and the leaves may be more dramatic than the speeches. It's easy to think that New England never changes, but it does, of course. New Hampshire Democrats haven't elected a senator since the 1970s and haven't elected a governor in almost that long. This year, they may do both.

The Democratic candidate for governor is Jeanne Shaheen, who pledges she's "going to keep working to create good jobs for people, jobs that have benefits, and to improve our schools, and I will veto any sales or income tax."

She leads conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne, the winner of a surprise primary after popular Republican Steve Merrill announced he wouldn't seek re-election.

"My plan is called expanding the New Hampshire advantage and it's built on what is good about New Hampshire: low taxes, limited state government and local control," Lamontagne said.

If Democrats truly have a shot at a Senate seat and the State House, does that mean that conservative New Hampshire is changing? New people do come, many from higher taxed Massachusetts. Some are like that state's governor, William Weld. They are Republicans and conservative about some things, but not others.

Says Fowler: "They bought in to the low tax, the fiscal conservatism, of the state, but in truth, I don't think they ever really bought into the social conservatism of the Republican Party."

Poet Robert Frost wrote, "The woods are lovely, dark and deep." This fall, they may hold some surprises.

This story originally appeared on CNN's "Inside Politics."

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