INDIANAPOLIS (AllPolitics, Oct. 31) -- With Democratic Gov. Evan Bayh of Indiana barred by law from seeking a third term, Indiana's gubernatorial race appeared to be Republican Stephen Goldsmith's to lose at the start of the year. But the Indianapolis mayor may have made enough mistakes and been sufficiently buffeted by events to hand a victory to Democratic Lt. Gov. Frank L. O'Bannon.
Goldsmith's main troubles are mostly beyond his control. Investigations stemming from an Aug. 27 brawl in downtown Indianapolis (in which drunken city policemen verbally accosted and beat citizens) have led to questions about Goldsmith's management of the city and kept his campaign off-message and off-balance.
To make matters worse, Goldsmith's ads attacking O'Bannon for supporting tax increases while in the state Senate were widely criticized by state media outlets for inaccuracy. Polls indicate that they are one of the top reasons voters support O'Bannon.
After leading O'Bannon by double digits into the summer, Goldsmith now trails by a statistically insignificant margin.
O'Bannon has been basking in the glow of his popular boss, Bayh, and taking credit for the state's robust economy and budget surplus, which he says will fund a small tax break during his administration.
Goldsmith, whom O'Bannon joshingly called "Mr. Privatization" in an Oct. 7 debate, has been a leader in contracting out Indianapolis services and says he will do the same at the state level, arguing that the state has too much bureaucracy.
Congressional Quarterly contributed to this report.