Speaker's Gavel Still Up For Grabs

By Thomas H. Moore/AllPolitics

WASHINGTON (Nov. 3) -- The race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is a nail-biter, and it is bound to be the big story election night. In these final days of the campaign, far too many seats are up for grabs to predict accurately who's going to wield the Speaker's gavel in the 105th Congress, but we do have two good guesses: Republican Newt Gingrich or Democrat Richard A. Gephardt. Get back to us Tuesday night and we'll be able to narrow that down... we hope.

AllPolitics' partner, Congressional Quarterly, surveyed all 435 districts and found 174 competitive House races -- an extraordinary number, even more than the 147 CQ identified in 1994, when the GOP picked up 52 seats. The magic number for the Democrats is 19, the number of House seats they need to pick up to take control of the chamber.

Many more Republican than Democratic seats fall into the "competitive" category. Seats held by freshman are traditionally harder to defend, and the GOP has a large and unusually ideological freshman class, thanks to its 1994 sweep. And this time around the electorate doesn't seem nearly as angry or ideological as it was then.

House Democrats had only 14 freshmen in the 104th Congress, while the GOP had 73. And only two of these Democratic freshmen are in races too close to call, while four Republican incumbents (three freshmen and a sophomore) actually trail their opponents in recent polls. Some recent nationwide surveys by The Associated Press and The Washington Post predict, albeit softly, that the GOP will retain control of the House.

One small quirk, though: if there are not enough clear winners in 13 redrawn Texas congressional districts, control of the House may not be decided until Dec. 10, when possible runoffs are scheduled in the Lone Star state.

One of the big unknowns, of course, is how President Bill Clinton's expected strength is going to help Democratic House candidates.

In 1984, when President Ronald Reagan sailed to a 49-state landslide, the GOP picked up only 14 House seats, and actually lost two seats in the Senate. But Reagan was roundly criticized by congressional Republicans for ignoring their needs; instead of hitting the road on their behalf in the final days of the campaign, Reagan headed to Minnesota in an unsuccessful attempt to pull the 50th state into his column.

Clinton has made no such mistake. Two years of relentless ethics investigations and budget battles from Newt Gingrich's House have undoubtedly increased Clinton's desire for a Democratic House. He and Vice President Al Gore have lent a hand to many Democratic House hopefuls, both with campaign appearances and fund-raising muscle.

The result: In the race for control of the House, we've got the excitement missing from the presidential race. One piece of AllPolitics advice: Don't bet the rent either way.