Durbin Has Edge Over Salvi In Illinois

CHICAGO (AllPolitics, Nov. 4) -- Democratic campaign strategists remain confident that seven-term Democratic Rep. Richard J. Durbin will win Illinois' key, open-seat Senate contest over his upstart Republican opponent, state Rep. Al Salvi, retaining the seat held by two-term Democrat Paul Simon.

Coupled with expectations of a presidential victory in the state, that gives Illinois Democrats far more to celebrate this November than they had any reason to expect just two years ago.

On Election Day 1994, Republican Gov. Jim Edgar led a GOP sweep of all statewide constitutional offices. Republicans also grabbed an open U.S. House seat formerly held by a Democrat and captured control of both the state House and Senate. Less than a week later, the bow-tie wearing, bass-voiced Simon, one of the state's most popular politicians, shocked his party by announcing he would not seek re-election in 1996.

Republican officials, fresh off their sweeping national victory that gave them control of Congress, began viewing the unexpected open seat in Illinois as a building block toward a "filibuster-proof," 60-seat Senate majority.

However, by the time the votes were counted in this year's March 19 primary, the political pendulum had swung way over in the Democrats' direction.

Durbin, the party organization's choice to succeed Simon, easily won his Senate primary, while Salvi, previously little- known and far more conservative on social issues than any recent successful candidate for major statewide office, upset Lt. Gov. Bob Kustra for the Republican nomination.

Jubilant Democrats immediately portrayed Salvi as too far right to win the general election, and most independent observers installed Durbin as a solid favorite to win the seat.

Since then, however, the pendulum has swung back again a bit, due largely to the superb campaign skills Salvi has shown since the primary campaign and the image he projects as a likeable family man. Just 36, Salvi travels the state with his wife and five children, including a baby born last spring.

But Durbin still appears to have strong advantages. A mild- mannered downstater from a working-class background, Durbin, 51, often refers to his own strong marriage, his grown children and his grandchild. His career has been patterned after that of Simon, his political mentor.

Although Durbin, like Simon, has a mainly liberal congressional voting record, his moderate demeanor enabled him to keep a strong hold on the 20th district, a swing district that runs from near Springfield to the edge of metropolitan St. Louis in southwest Illinois.

Although both contenders are personally pleasant, the tone of the campaign has been unrelentingly nasty. Voters listening to the rhetoric might think that the two candidates share an unusual first name, "Extremist."

Salvi's staunch views against abortion and gun control are unusual for a statewide candidate in Illinois, which almost always supports social moderates of both parties (including abortion rights supporters Edgar and Kustra). In an attempt to inoculate himself against the inevitable charge that he is an ideologue, Salvi has tried to turn the tables.

Emphasizing his fiscally conservative views on economic issues, Salvi mined Durbin's House record for every vote the Democrat made in favor of a tax increase. Running as a political outsider, Salvi also hammers Durbin for accepting congressional pay increases, accumulating a sizable pension and having overdrafts during the 1980s from the now-defunct House bank. In one Salvi campaign ad, an actor playing a bartender calls Durbin "a big-taxin', big-spendin', pay-grabbin' liberal congressman."

Some Democrats worried during the summer that Durbin was not responding aggressively enough to Salvi's attacks. But Durbin, who benefited from several campaign fund-raisers held for him during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, brought out the heavy artillery in September.

He ran ads slamming Salvi for what he called "dangerous" views, such as opposing the assault weapons ban enacted in 1994, and for accepting large campaign contributions from tobacco interests (Durbin, a longtime anti-smoking advocate, is a leading congressional adversary of the tobacco industry).

Running 11 percentage points ahead of Salvi in a recent statewide poll, Durbin may get boosts from both the top and bottom of the Democratic ticket this year. President Bill Clinton was running well ahead of Republican nominee Bob Dole in Illinois polls, and Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley is putting his considerable political muscle behind a get-out-the-vote effort.

Democrats and their organized labor allies are also working hard to boost voter turnout in an attempt to break Republican control of the state legislature.

Congressional Quarterly contributed to this report.

Related Links:

• Illinois State Profile