Baucus Has Edge Over Rehberg In Montana

BILLINGS, Mont. (AllPolitics, Nov. 4) -- Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana was widely viewed as one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents up for re-election this fall. But if state polls are to be relied upon, the three- term veteran has shored up his support over the last year and takes a clear lead over his Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Dennis Rehberg, into the campaign's final weeks.

Baucus has been waging an aggressive defense of his seat against attacks not only from Rehberg but from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which ran a barrage of ads earlier in the year attacking the incumbent as a liberal.

He also has been targeted by abortion opponents, who launched an advertising campaign aimed at prodding Baucus into voting in September to override President Bill Clinton's veto of a bill to ban certain late-term abortions. But Baucus, who opposed the bill when it came up for a vote in December, also voted to sustain the veto.

Rehberg is espousing classic GOP themes: reducing the size of government and cutting taxes. His ads accuse Baucus of voting for the "largest tax increase in history," a reference to tax hikes included in Clinton's 1993 budget package.

He also has attempted to tar Baucus by highlighting his vote for a pay raise in 1991 and opposition to term limits. Rehberg claims Baucus has attempted to help his re-election prospects by flip- flopping on support for a balanced-budget constitutional amendment and other issues.

But Rehberg's attacks appear so far to have fallen short. A late September poll for Lee Newspapers found Baucus with a 51-37 percent lead over Rehberg. "I don't think Rehberg has given people reason to vote against (Baucus)," said Craig Wilson, a political scientist at Montana State University.

Baucus has leveled his own attacks against the Republican. He says Rehberg's support for the congressional GOP's balanced- budget plan means he backs reductions in spending for Medicare, student loans and other popular programs.

Baucus also has lashed out at his opponent for opposing an increase in the minimum wage and supporting the 15 percent tax cut proposed by Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole. Baucus says he supports some tax breaks, such as those proposed by President Clinton that are targeted at education, but says the Dole plan goes too far.

For insurance, Baucus has a huge fund-raising advantage over Rehberg, though it would not take much money for Rehberg or his allies to launch a late advertising blitz in Montana.

As far as potential coattails are concerned, Clinton carried Montana in 1992 and led in most early state polls, though the race has tightened up. Rehberg could get a boost on the ticket from popular Republican Gov. Marc Racicot, who is virtually assured of re-election.

Congressional Quarterly contributed to this report.

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Related Links:

• Montana State Profile