GOP Keeps House, But Margin Will Be Much Thinner

By Thomas H. Moore/AllPolitics

WASHINGTON (Nov. 6) -- House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt wanted the Speaker's gavel badly. But by the time most of the votes were counted, it became clear that Republicans had held their ground, and even gained enough ground in Democratic open seats to keep control of the House for two more years.

The night started with the GOP in control of 236 seats and the Democrats holding 198. By noon on Thursday, the count stood at 223 GOP seats, 204 Democratic seats and six seats still up in the air, including three Texas seats headed for a Dec. 10 runoff.

These are the races still up in the air:

Democratic-held seats:

Calif. 42: Democratic Rep. George Brown leads Republican Linda M. Wilde by 1,150 votes at the moment.
Texas 25: Rep. Ken Bentsen is headed for a runoff; he only picked up 35 percent of the vote. Republican Dolly Madison McKenna placed second, with 18 percent.

Republican-held seats:

Calif. 46: Former GOP presidential candidate Robert K. Dornan of California is up by 233 votes with all the ballots in.
Ore. 5: Rep. Jim Bunn trails Democrat Darlene Hooley by more than 7,500 votes with about 4 percent of the ballots still uncounted.
Texas 8: This seat will remain Republican. Kevin Brady is headed for a runoff. He led on Tuesday with 42 percent of the vote to Republican Gene Fontenot's 39 percent.
Texas 9: Rep. Steve Stockman is headed for a runoff. He finished ahead of Democrat Nick Lampson 47 percent to 45 percent.

The GOP will have the help of the House's new independent, who is a stealth Republican. Missouri's Jo Ann Emerson ran for her late husband's 8th district as an independent only because she jumped into the race too late to run as a Republican. But count her as a Republican. (The House's other independent, Vermont socialist Bernard Sanders, will stay independent, as he has since he was first elected to the House in 1990.)

The Democrats' inability to knock off GOP freshmen doomed their efforts to take back the House. Counting the 10 open seats they lost, the Democrats had to take 29 other seats away from the Republicans -- a tall order, and one they didn't come close to carrying out.

So what does this mean? For one, it means that House Speaker Newt Gingrich will return to Washington with a razor-thin margin. He'll control the House's rules and committees, but he won't have a whole lot of maneuvering room.

It also means that most of Gingrich's 1994 freshman army will become sophomores, and thus fully integrated into the fabric of the House. Historically, it's easiest to knock off members when they first run for re-election. Once they pass that hurdle, they tend to be unstoppable. Their graduation into the sophomore class of Congress could be the biggest legacy of this election.