Polls 
A CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR  
March 28-April 2, 1996


Interviews were conducted on March 28-April 2 
with 2,432 registered voters who were 
originally interviewed in November, 1995 The sample 
includes 1,657 voters who will 
definitely voters for Clinton or Dole and 717 
"swing voters" who are still undecided or 
could change their minds by November.


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If the 1996 presidential election were held 
today, about 55% of the country's registered 
voters would choose Bill Clinton and 41% 
would pick Bob Dole. But the election is not 
being held today, and it is far from over. 
Only 41% of all registered voters say they will 
definitely vote for Bill Clinton. Another 29% 
say they will definitely vote for Bob Dole. 
The remaining 30% are "swing voters" -- those 
voters who could wind up voting for either 
candidate. Swing voters are the ones who both 
parties will spend the most time wooing in 
the coming months.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice

Clinton    55%
Dole       41

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice

Definitely for Clinton   41%
Definitely for Dole      29
Swing voters             30

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts


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A third of all swing voters say they don't 
belong to either the Democratic or Republican 
parties. By contrast, only a fifth of those 
voters who will definitely vote for Clinton or Dole 
-- the "loyalists" -- say they are Independents.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Party Identification


              Swing
              Voters   Loyalists
Democrat      30%      41%
Republican    27       33
Independent   34       20

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

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One reason why swing voters have not 
made their minds up may be that they are not as 
closely attached to either party as loyalists 
are. Indeed, six out of ten swing voters say that 
they routinely split their ticket, mostly 
voting for candidates from different parties in any 
given election. Only 38% of the loyalists, 
by contrast, are ticket-splitters.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Usually Vote For Candidates From...


                  Swing
                  Voters    Loyalists
Same party        38%       60%
Different parties 60        38

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


Nearly half of all swing voters say 
they are moderates; only 40% of loyalists do.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Political Ideology


              Swing
              Voters     Loyalists
Liberal       12%       17%
Moderate      47        40
Conservative  31        36

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

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But both candidates may have an uphill 
battle attracting the votes of swing voters, since 
they are far more likely than loyalists to 
support independent candidates. 50% of swing 
voters say they are very likely or somewhat 
likely to vote for an independent candidate for 
President; only 24% of loyalists say that. 
Swing voters are three times as likely to vote for 
Perot if he runs, and also more likely to vote 
for Pat Buchanan or Ralph Nader if they 
mount independent bids. And in November, 
44% of swing voters said they preferred Colin 
Powell to either Clinton or Dole; only 27% of 
loyalists chose Powell in a three-way race in 
November.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Likely to Vote for
Independent Candidate


            Swing
            Voters     Loyalists
Yes         50%        24%
No          44         72

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Presidential Choice
In Three-Way Race


          Swing
          Voters     Loyalists
Clinton   37%        53%
Dole      32         39
Perot     24          7

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


Swing voters are slightly younger than loyalists 
on average, and are slightly more likely to 
have children under 18 in their households.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Age

                  Swing
                  Voters     Loyalists
Under 50          67%        57%
Over 50           35         41

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Children Under 18


            Swing
            Voters    Loyalists
Yes         45%       39%
No          55        61

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

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The swing voters of 1996 may have been the 
group that cost the Democrats control of the 
House in 1994. The 1994 House vote was evenly 
split among today's loyalists -- 45% for 
the GOP; 46% for the Democrats. But among swing 
voters, Republican candidates for the 
House won an eight-point lead -- 45%-37%.
    

CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
1994 Congressional Vote


              Swing
              Voters     Loyalists
Republican    45%        45%
Democratic    37         46

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

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But swing voters and loyalists are not 
far apart on issues. Both groups have similar 
views about the latest round of budget negotiations. 
And both groups have the same priorities. 
Over half of both groups say that education should 
be a top priority for the next president. 
Nearly half of both groups say that top priorities 
for the next president should be the 
deficit, Medicare, and the economy.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Top Priorities for
Next President

             Swing
             Voters     Loyalists
Education    50%        52%
Deficit      47         48
Economy      47         44
Medicare     44         46

Sampling error: +/-4% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Acted More Responsibly
In Budget Negotiations


               Swing
               Voters    Loyalists
Clinton        44%       49%
GOP            34        39

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

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One other factor separates swing voters 
from the rest of the electorate. Less than half of all 
swing voters say they are paying close attention 
to the presidential election right now. Two-
thirds of the loyalists say they are paying close attention.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Close Attention to
Presidential Race?


         Swing
         Voters    Loyalists
Yes      48%       66%
No       51        32

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

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DOLE'S SUPPORTERS IN NOVEMBER

Current Choice for President

Dole      83%
Clinton   11
Undecided  6

Sampling error: +/-3% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
DOLE'S SUPPORTERS IN NOVEMBER

Political Ideology

              Still For         Switched to
              Dole              Clinton
Moderate      33%               57%
Conservative  57                27

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
DOLE'S SUPPORTERS IN NOVEMBER

Political Party


              Still For        Switched to
              Dole             Clinton
Independent   23%              41%
Republican    64               35

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
DOLE'S SUPPORTERS IN NOVEMBER

GOP Budget Cuts Go Too Far

Still for Dole        30%
Switched to Clinton   51

Sampling error: +/-9% pts



CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
DOLE'S SUPPORTERS IN NOVEMBER

Clinton Acted More Responsibly
In Budget Negotiations

Still for Dole       9%
Switched to Clinton 56

Sampling error: +/-9% pts



CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
DOLE'S SUPPORTERS IN NOVEMBER

Oppose Cutting Medicare to
Balance the Budget

Still for Dole      52%
Switched to Clinton 74

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


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If the election were held today, 55% of all 
registered voters would choose Bill Clinton over 
Bob Dole; 41% would pick Dole in a two-man race. 
With Ross Perot in the race, Clinton's 
margin drops to 47%-36% over Dole, with 
Perot winning 13% of the vote. But the election 
will not be held today, and is far from 
over: 30% of all registered voters are still undecided 
or say they could change their minds between 
now and November.
    

CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice

Clinton 55%
Dole    41

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Registered Voters'
Presidential Choice

Clinton   47%
Dole      36
Perot     13

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Have You Definitely Made Up
You Mind Whom To Vote For?

Yes   70%
No    30

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

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Education, crime, and the deficit are the 
three issues which registered voters think should 
be the top priority for the next President. 
Following very closely behind them are protecting 
Medicare, improving the nation's economy and 
reforming the welfare system -- more than 
four in ten voters said each of those should 
be top priorities for the next President. Other 
issues, including reducing taxes, improving 
moral standards in this country, and reforming 
the federal government, do not score as high.


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Top Priority for Next President

Education    51%
Crime        49
Deficit      47

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Top Priority for Next President

Medicare   46%
Economy    45
Welfare    44

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts


CNN/TIME ELECTION MONITOR
March 28-April 2
Top Priority for Next President

Government reform   38%
Moral standards     34
Cutting taxes       33

Sampling error: +/-2.5% pts

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