AllPolitics - A CNN/Time Poll

A CNN / Time Poll - February 21-22, 1996

About the CNN/Time Polls
Sample size and poll information
Presidential Horse Race
President Clinton and the Candidates
GOP Candidates
Pat Buchanan
Presidential Horse Race
Bob Dole

Interviews with 1,058 adult Americans, including 
858 registered voters and a special 
oversample of 526 registered Republicans, 
conducted February 21-22, 1996.



Back to the top

Bob Dole remains the first choice of registered 
Republicans throughout the country, but Pat 
Buchanan and Lamar Alexander have both seen their 
support jump by 15 points in the 
wake of the New Hampshire primary, putting 
them in a statistical tie for second place. 
Most of Buchanan's and Alexander's support 
appears to have come from Steve Forbes and 
the undecided vote, rather than from Dole, 
whose support dropped by only four points 
since mid-January. (Note that this is a 
national poll of all registere Republicans nationwide, 
and cannot predict the results of primaries 
or caucuses in individual states.)


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nomination

Dole          36%    Keyes 4%
Buchanan      21     Lugar 2
Alexander     18     Dornan 1
Forbes         8     Undecided 9

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nomination

             Now       January
Dole         36%       40%
Buchanan     21         6
Alexander    18         3
Forbes        8        15

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


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If the election were held today, Bill Clinton 
would beat each of the three top GOP 
contenders among registered voters nationwide. 
His lead over Dole has grown from a 
narrow 45%-42% margin in January to 52%-39% today. 
Clinton has a 53%-35% lead over 
Alexander and a 54%-35% lead over Buchanan. 
Alexander may be hurt by the public's 
unfamiliarity with him. In the days after the 
New Hampshire primary, over half the country 
were not familiar enough with the former Tennessee 
governor to have an opinion of him. 
Pat Buchanan is better known, but suffers 
from steadily negative feelings about him. In the 
days after New Hampshire, Buchanan's favorable 
rating among all Americans rose nine 
points, but his unfavorable rating also made 
a six-point climb compared to early January. 
During that same period, Dole's favorable rating 
dropped slightly. Registered Republicans 
have a positive image of Buchanan, but are even 
more favorable toward Dole.


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Registered Voters'
Choice for President


        Now      January
Clinton 52%      45%
Dole    39       42

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Registered Voters'
Choice for President

Clinton     53%
Alexander   35

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Registered Voters'
Choice for President

Clinton      54%
Buchanan     35

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Opinion of Buchanan <--- REPORTED FOR ALL AMERICANS

              Now     January
Favorable     32%     23%
Unfavorable   40      34

Sampling error: +/-3% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Opinion of Dole <--- REPORTED FOR ALL AMERICANS

              Now   January
Favorable     43%   46%
Unfavorable   36    34

Sampling error: +/-3% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Favorable Ratings Among
Registered Republicans

Dole        71%
Buchanan    48
Alexander   45

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


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Dole appears to be more ideologically palatable 
to registered Republicans nationwide than 
Buchanan is. A majority of registered Republicans 
nationwide say that Buchanan is too 
extreme in his political views to be elected 
President. 51% describe Buchanan as very 
conservative, but only 11% of registered Republicans 
think the GOP should choose a very 
conservative candidate as its nominee. 41% say the 
party should choose a moderate and 
43% would prefer a conservative candidate. 48% describe 
Dole as a moderate and 33% say he is a conservative. 
Only 15% say Dole is very conservative.


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Is Buchanan Too Extreme
To Be Elected President?

Yes    54%
No     38

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
GOP Should Nominate
Candidate Who Is...

Moderate          41%
Conservative      43
Very conservative 11

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Buchanan's Ideology

Moderate          11%
Conservative      26
Very conservative 51

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Dole's Ideology

Moderate           48%
Conservative       33
Very conservative  10

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


Back to the top

Where does Buchanan draw his support? Part of 
it comes from registered Republicans who 
support the views of the religious right -- 
over half of Buchanan voters support that 
groups' views; only 30% of Dole voters do. 
Surprisingly, however, a majority of 
Buchanan's voters oppose a constitutional 
amendment to ban abortion. Another part of 
Buchanan's support comes from voters who 
think free trade is bad. Half of Buchanan 
voters think that free trade agreements like 
NAFTA and GATT are mostly bad for American 
consumers; half of Dole voters think free trade 
agreements are good for consumers. Overall, the 
general public thinks that free trade agreements 
have been good for American corporations but bad 
for American workers (Buchanan voters and Dole voters 
agree on each of those points.) But nearly half the 
country (including half of all Republicans) oppose 
withdrawing from NAFTA.


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Buchanan Voters' Views
of Religious Right

Support     53%
Oppose       8
Unfamiliar  37

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Dole Voters' Views
of Religious Right

Support    30%
Oppose     23
Unfamiliar 43

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Buchanan Voters' Position
On Abortion Amendment

Support   44%
Oppose    52

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Buchanan Voters' Views
of Free Trade Agreements

Good for consumers    37%
Bad for consumers     50

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Dole Voters' Views
of Free Trade Agreements

Good for consumers   52%
Bad for consumers    33

Sampling error: +/-9% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Free Trade Agreements
Are Good For... <--- THIS QUESTION REPORTED FOR ALL AMERICANS

U.S. corporations   58%
U.S. consumers      45
U.S. workers        31

Sampling error: +/-3% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
Should U.S. Withdraw
From NAFTA? <--- THIS QUESTION REPORTED FOR ALL AMERICANS

Yes   34%
No    48

Sampling error: +/-3% pts



Back to the top

Why is Dole still leading the rest of the GOP 
field? He is the best known candidate and, at 
least for the moment, that gives him an advantage 
over his nearest rivals in a number of 
areas. Nearly half of all registered Republicans 
say that Dole, when compared to Buchanan 
or Alexander, has the vision to be the next 
President and will provide the economic and 
moral leadership the country needs. His one 
problem is that registered Republicans do not 
believe that he best understands the needs of 
the average American.


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Who Can Best Provide
Economic Leadership?

Dole       47%
Alexander  20
Buchanan   16

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Who Can Best Provide
Moral Leadership?

Dole       43%
Buchanan   33
Alexander  10

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts


CNN/TIME POLL
February 21-22
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
Who Best Understands
Needs of Average American?

Buchanan   29%
Dole       29
Alexander  23

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

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