Election Benchmark
N=1000 National Adults January 12-15, 1996
RESULTS ARE BASED ON TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS WITH -- 1039
-- NATIONAL ADULTS, AGED 18+, CONDUCTED JANUARY 12-15,
1996.
FOR RESULTS BASED ON SAMPLES OF THIS SIZE, ONE CAN SAY
WITH 95% CONFIDENCE THAT THE MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR IS
3 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
Subgroups: Sample Size Margin of Error
FORM A/B 516 5
FORM C/D 523 5
Registered Voters 891 4
Registered Republicans/
Republican Leaners 421 5
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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is
handling his job as president?
Ap- Disap- No
prove prove opinion
% % %
1996:
96 Jan 12-15 46 47 7
96 Jan 5-7 42 49 9
1995:
95 Dec 15-18 51 44 5
95 Nov 17-18 53 38 9
95 Nov 6-8 52 41 7
95 Oct 19-22 49 40 11
95 Oct 5-7 46 42 12
95 Sep 22-24 48 44 8
95 Sep 14-17 44 44 12
95 Aug 28-30 46 43 11
95 Aug 4-7 46 42 12
95 Jul 20-23 46 44 10
95 Jul 7-9 48 42 10
95 Jun 5-6 47 42 11
95 May 11-14 51 42 7
95 Apr 21-24 51 39 10
95 Apr 17-19 46 45 9
95 Apr 5-6 47 45 8
95 Mar 27-29 44 47 9
95 Mar 17-19 46 45 9
95 Feb 24-26 42 48 10
95 Feb 3-5 49 44 7
95 Jan 16-18 47 45 8
Ap- Disap- No
prove prove opinion
% % %
1994:
94 Dec 28-30 40 52 8
94 Dec 16-18 42 53 5
94 Dec 2-5 42 50 8
94 Nov 28-29 43 49 8
94 Nov 2-6 46 46 8
94 Oct 22-25 48 46 6
94 Oct 18-19 41 52 7
94 Oct 7-9 42 52 6
94 Sep 23-25 44 51 5
94 Sep 16-18 42 50 8
94 Sep 6-7 39 54 7
94 Aug 15-16 39 52 9
94 Aug 8-9 43 48 9
94 Jul 15-17 42 49 9
94 Jul 1-3 43 48 9
94 Jun 25-28 44 47 8
94 Jun 11-12 49 44 7
94 Jun 3-6 46 47 7
94 May 20-22 51 42 7
94 Apr 22-24 48 44 8
94 Apr 16-18 51 41 8
94 Mar 25-27 52 41 7
94 Mar 11-13 50 41 9
94 Mar 7-8 50 42 8
94 Feb 26-28 53 41 6
94 Jan 28-30 58 35 7
94 Jan 15-17 54 38 8
94 Jan 6-8 54 38 8
1993:
93 Dec 17-19 54 40 6
93 Dec 4-6 52 38 10
93 Nov 19-21 48 43 9
93 Nov 15-16 50 43 7
93 Nov 2-4 48 45 7
93 Oct 28-30 48 45 7
93 Oct 13-18 47 44 9
93 Oct 8-10 50 42 8
93 Sep 24-26 56 36 8
93 Sep 13-15 46 43 11
93 Sep 10-12 47 42 11
93 Aug 23-25 44 47 9
93 Aug 8-10 44 48 8
93 Jul 19-21 41 49 10
93 Jul 9-11 45 48 7
93 Jun 29-30 46 47 7
93 Jun 18-21 39 50 11
93 Jun 5-6 37 49 14
93 May 21-23 44 46 10
93 May 10-12 45 44 11
93 Apr 22-24 55 37 8
93 Mar 29-31 52 37 11
93 Mar 12-14 53 34 13
93 Feb 26-28 59 29 12
93 Feb 12-14 51 34 15
93 Feb 29-31 54 30 16
93 Jan 24-26 58 20 22
1A. How strongly would you say you [approve/disapprove] -- would
you say very strongly, or not so strongly?
Not so Very
Very Not so strongly strongly
strongly strongly dis- dis- No
approve approve approve approve opin
% % % % %
96 Jan 12-15 26 20 17 30 7
95 Jan 16-18 21 26 17 28 8
94 Jul 15-17 19 23 15 34 9
94 Jun 3-6 26 20 15 32 7
Previous Presidents:
92 Jan 3-6 (Bush) 21 25 32 15 7
83 Sep 16-19 (Reagan) 22 26 14 28 10
80 Jan 25-28 (Carter)
76 Jan 23-26 (Ford)
71 Jul 15-18 (Nixon)
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What do you think is the most important problem facing this
country today? SELECTED TREND:
Jan Jan Jan Jan
12-15 16-18 28-30 8-11
1996 1995 1994 1993
% % % %
Economic problems (NET) 54 44 42 69
Unemployment/jobs 11 15 17 22
Federal budget deficit 26 14 8 13
Economy in general 14 10 17 35
Taxes 6 5 2 3
High cost of living/inflation 1 2 1 1
Trade relations/deficit 1 1 2 3
Recession * 0 * 1
The budget 2 -- -- --
The government shutdown 2 -- --
--
Other specific economic -- 3 1 4
Non-economic problems (NET) 79 76 85 63
Crime/violence 18 27 49 9
Health care 10 12 31 18
Welfare 9 12 6 --
Poverty/homelessness 10 10 9 15
Drugs 9 6 8 6
Ethics/moral/family decline 10 6 5 7
Dissatisfaction with gov't/Clinton
Republicans 17 5 3 5
Education 9 5 6 8
Youth * 3 -- --
Intern'l issues/foreign affairs 6 2 3 5
Foreign aid/focus overseas 5 2 1 3
Medicare/Soc. Sec. 8 2 1 2
Racism/race relations 4 2 1 3
Immigration/illegal aliens 1 1 1 --
AIDS 1 1 1 2
Environment 2 1 2 3
Abortion * 1 -- --
National defense 1 1 -- --
Guns/gun control * * 3 --
Bosnia 3 -- -- --
Other non-economic 15 10 11 17
No opinion 3 2 * 2
---- ---- ---- ----
204% 161% 189% 189%
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* Total figures add to more than 100% because of multiple responses (but
do not include "Nets"). The percentage shown for each specific problem
includes all mentions (respondents are allowed to name up to three
problems). Net scores represent the percentage of respondents naming at
least one "Economic" problem, or one "Non-Economic" problem.
LONG TERM TREND
The Unemploy- Health The
economy ment/jobs Crime care deficit
% % % % %
96 Jan 12-15 14 11 18 10 26
95 Jul 7-9 9 12 25 7 11
95 Jan 16-18 10 15 27 12 14
94 Aug 15-16 17 6 52 29 3
94 Jul 15-17 13 13 30 21 5
94 Jan 28-30 17 17 49 31 8
94 Jan 15-17 14 18 37 20 5
93 Sep 10-12 26 20 16 28 15
93 Jan 8-11 35 22 9 18 13
92 Aug 28-Sep 2 37 27 7 12 9
92 May 7-10 29 21 8 7 5
92 Mar 26-29 42 25 5 12 8
91 Nov 21-24 32 23 6 6 4
91 Jul 11-14 16 8 4 3 8
90 Jul 19-22 7 3 1 -- 21
89 Nov 9-12 7 3 3 -- 7
89 Sep 7-10 4 2 3 -- 5
89 Jul 18-21 7 2 3 -- 6
89 May 4-7 8 6 6 -- 7
87 Apr 10-13 10 13* 3 1 11
87 Jan 16-19 8 16* 3 1 10
86 Jan 10-13 4 18* 3 -- 11
85 Oct 11-14 4 24* 3 -- 16
85 May 7-10 8 21 4 -- --
85 Jan 25-28 6 20 4 -- --
84 Sep 28-Oct 1 4 22* 3 * 8
84 Aug 10-13 8 23 4 -- --
84 Jun 22-25 * 14 4 -- 7
83 Nov 18-21 3 31 2 -- --
82 Apr 2-5 11 44* 3 -- --
82 Jan 8-11 -- 28* 5 -- --
81 Oct 2-5 -- 17 4 -- --
81 May 8-11 -- 15 5 -- --
80 Sep 12-15 * 16 2 -- --
80 May 28-31 * 4* 2 -- --
79 Aug 10-13 -- 8* 3 -- --
79 May 4-7 -- 5* 2 -- --
79 Feb 23-26 -- 6* 3 -- --
78 Oct 27-30 * 8* 2 -- --
78 Sep 8-11 -- 12* 4 -- --
78 Jul 7-10 -- 14* 3 -- --
78 Apr 14-17 -- 18* -- -- --
78 Feb 10-13 -- 17* 4 -- --
77 Oct 21-24 -- 25* 6 -- --
77 Jul 22-25 -- 17* 6 -- --
77 Mar 18-21 -- 39* 15 1 --
* Recession included in percentages with unemployment
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Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news.
As I read each name, tell me if you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never
heard of him or her. First, ... [INSERT ITEM A]. Next,
[ROTATE B-D]. Next, [SPLIT SAMPLE: FORMS A-B: ROTATE
E-H; FORMS C-D: ROTATE I-K].
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No
able orable HEARD OF opin
% % % %
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Bill Clinton 96 Jan 12-15 54 44 0 2
95 Nov 6-8 59 38 * 3
95 Sep 22-24 55 41 * 4
95 Aug 4-7 51 44 0 5
95 Jul 7-9 57 40 0 3
95 Apr 17-19 56 42 1 1
95 Mar 17-19 51 45 * 4
95 Jan 16-18 56 42 * 2
94 Dec 28-30 48 49 0 3
94 Nov 28-29 50 47 0 3
94 Sep 6-7 47 50 0 3
94 Jul 15-17 49 48 * 3
94 Apr 22-24 56 41 0 3
94 Mar 25-27 56 40 0 4
94 Mar 7-8 59 38 * 3
94 Jan 15-17 60 37 0 3
94 Jan 6-8 62 35 -- 3
93 Nov 19-21 55 41 -- 4
93 Nov 15-16 56 38 -- 6
93 Nov 2-4 54 42 -- 4
93 Sep 24-26 63 32 -- 5
93 Aug 8-10 53 42 -- 5
93 Jul 19-21 51 45 -- 4
93 Jun 5-6 48 44 -- 8
93 Apr 22-24 63 32 -- 5
93 Jan 29-31 65 27 -- 8
93 Jan 18-19 66 26 -- 8
92 Nov 10-11 58 35 -- 7
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Hillary Rodham
Clinton 96 Jan 12-15 43 51 1 5
95 Jul 7-9 50 44 1 5
95 Mar 17-19 49 44 1 6
95 Jan 16-18 50 44 1 5
94 Nov 28-29 50 44 1 5
94 Sep 6-7 48 47 1 4
94 Jul 15-17 48 46 1 5
94 Apr 22-24 56 40 * 4
94 Mar 25-27 52 42 1 5
94 Mar 7-8 55 40 * 5
94 Jan 15-17 57 36 1 6
93 Nov 2-4 58 34 -- 8
93 Sep 24-26 62 27 -- 11
93 Aug 8-10 57 33 -- 10
93 Jul 19-21 56 34 -- 10
93 Jun 5-6 50 31 -- 19
93 Apr 22-24 61 27 -- 12
93 Mar 22-24 61 31 -- 8
93 Jan 29-31 67 22 -- 11
92 Nov 10-11 49 30 -- 21
92 Aug 31-Sep 2 56 25 -- 19
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Bob Dole 96 Jan 12-1 44 40 3 13
95 Nov 6-8 42 44 4 10
95 Sep 22-24 42 43 4 11
95 Aug 4-7 47 34 4 15
95 Jul 7-9 59 29 4 8
95 Apr 17-19 57 32 2 9
95 Mar 17-19 53 29 5 13
95 Jan 16-18 54 31 4 11
94 Dec 28-30 54 30 4 12
94 Nov 28-29 58 26 6 10
94 Jul 15-17 51 30 7 12
94 Jan 15-17 52 29 4 15
93 Aug 8-10 42 37 -- 21
93 Mar 22-24 54 26 -- 20
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Ross Perot 96 Jan 12-15 37 50 1 12
95 Aug 4-7 40 46 2 12
95 Apr 17-19 41 52 1 6
94 Sep 6-7 40 50 1 9
94 Jul 15-17 39 50 1 10
94 Apr 22-24 37 54 * 9
94 Jan 15-17 36 56 1 7
93 Nov 2-4 44 44 -- 12
93 Aug 8-10 52 38 -- 10
93 Mar 22-24 66 28 -- 6
L.V.: 92 Nov 1-2 46 46 -- 8
R.V. trend:92 Oct 22-23 56 32 -- 12
92 Sep 28-30 20 66 -- 14
92 Jul 17-18 38 47 -- 15
92 Jul 16 44 35 -- 21
92 Jul 6-8 44 37 -- 19
92 Jun 26-30 48 34 -- 18
92 Jun 12-14 52 30 -- 18
92 May 18-20 50 25 -- 25
92 May 7-10 48 16 -- 36
92 Apr 20-22 41 23 -- 36
92 Mar 31-Apr 1 32 10 -- 58
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Al Gore
(FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 52 34 2 12
94 Sep 6-7 56 31 2 11
94 Apr 22-24 60 28 2 10
94 Mar 25-27 56 29 2 13
94 Jan 15-17 62 26 3 9
93 Nov 2-4 49 30 -- 21
93 Jul 19-21 55 30 -- 15
93 Apr 22-24 55 24 -- 21
93 Jan 18-19 63 22 -- 15
92 Nov 10-11 56 28 -- 16
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Pat Buchanan
(FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 25 49 10 16
95 Jul 7-9 30 40 10 20
95 Apr 17-19 27 43 9 21
95 Mar 17-19 29 35 10 26
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Lamar Alexander
(FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 13 16 50 21
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Richard Lugar
(FORM A/B) 96 Jan 12-15 11 12 58 19
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Newt Gingrich
(FORM C/D) 96 Jan 12-15 31 57 4 8
95 Aug 4-7 31 47 6 16
95 Apr 17-19 37 51 4 8
95 Mar 17-19 33 47 6 14
95 Jan 16-18 34 37 9 20
94 Dec 28-30 27 35 14 24
94 Nov 28-29 29 25 22 24
94 Oct 7-9 19 22 42 17
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No
able orable HEARD OF opin
% % % %
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Phil Gramm
(FORM C/D) 96 Jan 12-15 24 29 24 23
95 Jul 7-9 29 26 21 24
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Steve Forbes
(FORM C/D) 96 Jan 12-15 26 12 34 28
-----+
| PARTY ID FOR SCREENING
4A. -----+
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Now here is a list of people who are running for the
presidential nomination of the Republican party in 1996.
(ROTATE NAMES 6-13) Which of these candidates would you be
most likely to support for the Republican nomination for
president?
5A. Who would be your second choice?
REPUBLICAN LIST BASED ON FIRST CHOICE OF -- 405 --
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; MARGIN OF ERROR = 5 PCT PTS.
Alex Buch Dorn- Lug- Spec- Wil- No
ander anan Dole an Gramm Keyes ar ter son Forbes opin
% % % % % % % % % % %
1996
Jan 12-15 3 5 55 * 6 3 2 na na 12 14
Jan 5-7 1 6 49 1 10 2 6 na na 11 14
1995
Dec 15-18 2 9 52 1 13 3 3 na na 8 9
Nov 6-8 2 7 48 1 7 1 2 3 na 6 23
Sep 22-24 3 8 47 1 11 1 3 1 4 5 16
Aug 28-30 4 7 45 1 11 2 2 2 11 na 15
Aug 4-7 4 10 47 2 10 1 2 2 4 na 18
Jul 7-9 4 7 47 1 8 1 2 2 8 na 20
Jun 5-6 3 7 51 2 14 1 3 3 6 na 10
May 11-14 2 5 54 2 13 1 2 2 6 na 13
Apr 5-6 3 7 45 1 15 1 5 5 5 na 13
Now suppose the 1996 presidential election were being held today.
If Bill Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Bob
Dole the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for -- Clinton, the Democrat, or Dole, the
Republican?
6A. As of today, do you lean more to Clinton, the Democrat, or to
Dole, the Republican?
BASED ON -- 891 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS
DEPENDS/NEITHER/
Clinton Dole No opinion
% % %
96 Jan 12-15 48 49 3
96 Jan 5-7 46 49 5
95 Dec 15-18 54 43 4
95 Nov 6-8 53 43 4
95 Sep 22-24 50 45 5
95 Aug 28-30 48 48 4
95 Aug 4-7 46 48 6
95 Jul 20-23 49 45 6
95 Jul 7-9 47 48 5
95 Jun 5-6 46 51 4
95 May 11-14 48 48 4
95 Apr 17-19 48 49 4
95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4
If Bob Dole and Bill Clinton become the Republican and
Democratic nominees for president this year, would you be
satisfied with that choice or not satisfied?
Repub- Demo- Indepen-
Total lican crat dent
56 58 68 45 Satisfied
40 38 29 52 Not satisfied
4 4 3 3 No opinion
--- --- --- ---
100 100 100 100
IF CLINTON VOTER IN Q. 6:
A If Bob Dole becomes the Republican nominee for president, is
there any chance you will vote for Bob Dole in the November
election or is there no chance whatsoever that you will vote
for him?
IF DOLE VOTER IN Q. 6:
8.B Is there any chance you will vote for Bill Clinton in the
November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you
will vote for him?
BASED ON -- 891 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS
96 Jan 12-15 96 Jan 5-7
38 33 Core Clinton Voters:
No chance will vote for Dole
40 36 Core Dole Voters:
No chance will vote for Clinton
22 31 Swing Voters
--- ---
100 100
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Now suppose that the 1996 presidential election included Bill
Clinton as the Democratic candidate, Bob Dole as the
Republican candidate, and Ross Perot as an independent
candidate. Would you vote for Bill Clinton, the Democrat,
Bob Dole the Republican, or Ross Perot, the independent?
9A. As of today do you lean toward Clinton the Democrat, Dole the
Republican, or Perot, the independent?
RESULTS BASED ON FORM A/B -- 434 -- REGISTERED VOTERS;
5 PCT. PTS.
96 Jan 12-15 95 Aug 4-7 95 Apr 17-19
% % %
43 39 40 Clinton
39 35 37 Dole
16 23 18 Perot
2 3 5 Undecided/Other
--- --- ---
100 100 100
Now suppose that the 1996 presidential election included Bill
Clinton as the Democratic candidate, Bob Dole as the
Republican candidate, and an independent candidate nominated
by the new party formed by Ross Perot. Would you vote for
Bill Clinton, the Democrat, Bob Dole the Republican, or the
nominee of that new party.
10A. As of today do you lean toward Clinton the Democrat, Dole the
Republican, or the nominee of the new party formed by Ross
Perot?
BASED ON FORM C/D -- 457 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 5 PCT. PTS.
38 Clinton
37 Dole
20 Nominee of new party
5 Undecided/Other
---
100
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If the elections for Congress were being held today, which
party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional
district -- the Democratic Party's candidate or the
Republican Party's candidate?
11A. As of today, would you lean more to the Democratic Party's
candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate?
BASED ON -- 891-- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS
Democratic Republican Undecided/
candidate candidate other
% % %
96 Jan 12-15 46 47 7
96 Jan 5-7 44 48 8
95 Dec 15-18 49 43 8
95 Nov 6-8 47 46 7
95 Aug 28-30 43 47 10
95 Jul 7-9 46 47 7
94 Nov 2-6 46 46 8
Previous On-Year Elections
92 Sep 28-30 52 39 8
92 Apr 20-22 47 44 9
88 May 13-15 52 37 11
84 Apr 6-9 55 45 --
80 Aug 15-18 57 34 9
80 Feb/Mar 53 37 10
76 Oct 28-30 (LV) 53 39 8
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Please tell me whether you think each of the following
political officeholders deserves to be re-elected, or not --
First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER]
No,
Yes, does not
deserves deserve No
re-elect Re-elect opinion
% % %
a. President Clinton
96 Jan 12-15 45 52 3
94 Oct 18-19 38 58 4
94 Oct 7-9 38 57 5
94 Sep 23-25 38 57 5
94 Apr 22-24 40 49 11
94 Mar 25-27 46 48 6
94 Jan 28-30 45 38 7
94 Jan 15-17 40 45 15
b. The U.S. representative in your Congressional District
96 Jan 12-15 62 21 17
94 Nov 2-6 53 29 18
94 Oct 22-25 54 30 16
94 Oct 18-19 57 29 14
94 Oct 7-9 54 29 17
94 Jul 15-17 60 27 13
94 Mar 25-27 60 23 17
94 Feb 26-28 59 28 13
93 Dec 17-19 59 26 15
93 Nov 2-4 62 19 19
93 Jul 19-21 58 25 17
92 Oct 23-25 48 30 22
92 Sep 11-15 54 25 21
92 Jul 31-Aug 2 61 25 14
92 Apr 20-22 50 31 19
92 Apr 9-12 58 29 13
92 Mar 20-22 56 30 14
92 Jan 31-Feb 2 64 24 12
92 Jan 3-9 61 25 14
91 Nov 58 25 17
No,
Yes, does not
deserves deserve No
re-elect Re-elect opinion
% % %
c. Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives
96 Jan 12-15 47 38 15
94 Nov 2-6 39 45 16
94 Oct 22-25 43 44 13
94 Oct 18-19 44 42 14
94 Oct 7-9 37 48 15
94 Jul 15-17 41 43 16
94 Mar 25-27 46 38 16
94 Feb 26-28 42 44 14
93 Dec 17-19 38 47 15
93 Jul 19-21 39 46 15
92 Oct 23-25 29 50 21
92 Sep 11-15 32 46 22
92 Jul 31 Aug 2 40 46 14
92 Apr 20-22 33 50 17
92 Apr 9-12 32 53 15
92 Mar 20-22 31 58 11
92 Jan 31-Feb 2 43 43 14
92 Jan 3-9 43 42 15
91 Nov 38 48 14
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Now thinking about some issues, do you approve or disapprove
of the way Bill Clinton is handling [RANDOM ORDER]? Next, do
you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling [INSERT
NEXT ITEM].
RESULTS BASED ON FORM A/B -- 516 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5
PCT PTS
Dis- No
Approve approve opinion
% % %
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The economy 96 Jan 12-15 44 51 5
95 Dec 15-18 47 45 8
95 Oct 19-22 44 49 7
95 Jul 20-23 47 46 7
95 Jul 7-9 41 52 7
95 Jun 5-6 42 49 9
95 Feb 3-5 46 49 5
95 Jan 16-18 47 48 5
94 Dec 2-5 43 50 7
94 Nov 2-6 43 51 6
94 Oct 22-25 42 53 5
94 Oct 18-19 38 57 5
94 Sep 23-25 40 55 5
94 Sep 6-7 43 52 5
94 Aug 15-16 42 49 9
94 Jul 15-16 36 57 7
94 Jun 25-28 43 48 9
94 Jun 11-12 49 45 6
94 Jun 3-6 47 46 7
94 May 20-22 50 45 5
94 Apr 22-24 45 48 7
94 Mar 7-8 51 42 7
94 Feb 26-28 48 48 4
94 Jan 28-30 53 40 7
94 Jan 15-17 46 47 7
94 Jan 6-8 49 45 6
93 Dec 4-6 47 46 7
93 Nov 19-21 43 50 7
93 Nov 2-4 37 57 6
93 Oct 8-10 43 48 9
93 Oct 13-18 41 51 8
93 Sep 24-26 47 45 8
93 Sep 10-12 39 50 11
93 Aug 23-25 38 53 9
93 Aug 8-10 38 57 5
93 Jul 9-11 34 60 6
93 Jun 29-30 35 59 6
93 Jun 18-21 36 56 8
93 Jun 5-6 34 56 10
93 May 21-23 35 59 6
93 Apr 22-24 43 50 7
93 Mar 29-31 49 42 9
93 Feb 12-14 45 35 20
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Foreign affairs
96 Jan 12-15 48 47 5
95 Dec 15-18 46 48 6
95 Oct 19-22 43 44 13
95 Jul 20-23 37 54 9
95 Jul 7-9 44 44 12
95 Jun 5-6 40 51 9
95 Feb 3-5 44 45 11
95 Jan 16-18 44 49 7
94 Dec 2-5 44 46 10
94 Nov 2-6 49 44 7
94 Oct 22-25 46 48 6
94 Oct 18-19 44 50 6
94 Sep 23-25 40 55 5
94 Sep 6-7 34 57 9
94 Aug 15-16 34 52 14
94 Jul 15-17 33 60 7
94 June 25-28 34 52 14
94 Jun 11-12 44 45 11
94 Jun 3-6 39 50 11
94 May 20-22 37 52 11
94 Apr 22-24 39 51 10
94 Mar 7-8 51 38 11
94 Feb 26-28 51 40 9
94 Jan 28-30 52 37 11
94 Jan 15-17 54 36 10
94 Jan 6-8 45 43 12
93 Dec 4-6 45 44 11
93 Nov 19-21 41 49 10
93 Nov 2-4 34 57 9
93 Oct 13-18 36 54 10
93 Oct 8-10 40 52 8
93 Sep 24-26 55 32 13
93 Sep 10-12 46 36 18
93 Aug 23-25 48 39 13
93 Aug 8-10 46 44 10
93 Jul 9-11 49 38 13
93 Jun 29-30 56 33 11
93 Jun 18-21 48 36 16
93 May 21-23 44 43 12
93 Apr 22-24 53 34 13
93 Mar 29-31 55 30 15
93 Feb 12-14 53 22 25
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Taxes 96 Jan 12-15 41 51 8
95 Jun 5-6 36 56 8
94 Dec 2-5 31 60 9
94 Jul 15-17 31 61 8
94 Apr 22-24 33 60 7
94 Jan 28-30 42 50 8
94 Jan 15-17 37 54 9
93 Nov 2-4 29 64 7
93 Aug 8-10 35 61 4
93 Apr 22-24 34 59 7
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Education 96 Jan 12-15 54 36 10
94 Jan 15-17 49 37 14
93 Nov 2-4 52 36 12
93 Aug 8-10 47 37 16
93 Apr 22-24 56 26 18
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Health care 96 Jan 12-15 44 50 6
94 Dec 2-5 37 58 5
94 Sep 6-7 36 60 4
94 Aug 15-16 35 57 8
94 Jul 15-17 34 59 7
94 June 25-28 38 53 9
94 May 20-22 41 52 7
94 Apr 22-24 41 52 7
94 Mar 7-8 40 50 10
94 Feb 26-28 39 53 8
94 Jan 28-30 51 40 9
94 Jan 15-17 46 44 10
93 Nov 2-4 53 40 7
93 Nov 28-30 51 43 6
93 Sep 24-26 55 33 12
93 Sep 10-12 43 38 19
93 Aug 8-10 44 45 11
93 Apr 22-24 51 35 14
Trend: "Health care policy"
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Crime 96 Jan 12-15 44 46 10
95 Jul 7-9 (#) 40 53 7
94 Feb 26-28 (#) 37 41 22
93 Dec 17-19 (#) 39 37 24
#Wording: "The crime problem"
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The federal budget
deficit 96 Jan 12-15 35 60 5
95 Dec 15-18 40 53 7
95 Jul 7-9 33 58 9
95 Jun 5-6 29 62 9
94 Dec 2-5 33 56 11
94 Jul 15-17 28 61 11
94 Apr 22-24 33 57 10
94 Feb 26-28 35 57 8
94 Jan 28-30 40 47 13
94 Jan 15-17 37 53 10
93 Nov 2-4 33 59 8
93 Aug 8-10 39 54 7
93 Apr 22-24 40 51 9
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Welfare policy 96 Jan 12-15 40 55 5
95 Jun 5-6 38 52 10
94 Dec 2-5 32 55 13
94 Apr 22-24 36 51 13
93 Dec 17-19 (#) 36 47 17
# Wording: "Welfare Reform"
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Medicare 96 Jan 12-15 47 47 6
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Now thinking about some issues, do you approve or disapprove
of the way Bob Dole is handling [RANDOM ORDER]? Next, do you
approve or disapprove of the way he is handling [INSERT NEXT
ITEM].
RESULTS BASED ON FORM A/B -- 516 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS
Dis- No
Approve approve opinion
The economy 38 44 18
Foreign affairs 40 31 29
Taxes 36 47 17
Education 35 38 27
Health care 35 48 17
Crime 35 39 26
Federal budget deficit 36 49 15
Welfare 37 46 17
Medicare 33 51 16
I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and
qualities. As I read each one, please tell me whether you
think it applies or doesn't apply to Bill Clinton. First,
... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER]
RESULTS BASED ON FORM C/D -- 523 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS
(* = Asked of half sample)
Doesn't No
Applies apply Opin
% % %
a. Can get things done
96 Jan 12-15* 41 56 3
95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4
94 Dec 2-5 45 53 2
94 Oct 17-19 42 56 2
94 Sep 6-7 42 54 4
94 Mar 7-8 57 39 4
94 Jan 28-30 64 31 5
94 Jul 15-17 43 54 3
94 Apr 22-24 54 42 4
94 Jan 15-17* 62 33 5
94 Jan 6-8 63 34 3
93 Nov 19-21 66 30 4
93 Nov 2-4* 49 46 5
93 Oct 8-10 56 38 6
93 Aug 8-10* 46 49 5
93 Jun 29-30 46 49 5
93 Jun 5-6 42 51 7
93 Apr 22-24 55 40 5
b. Honest and trustworthy
96 Jan 12-15* 40 55 5
95 Feb 3-5 46 49 5
94 Dec 2-5 44 52 4
94 Oct 17-19 41 56 3
94 Jul 15-17 39 56 5
94 Apr 22-24 47 48 5
94 Mar 7-8 48 46 6
94 Jan 28-30 52 43 5
94 Jan 15-17* 53 41 6
94 Jan 6-8 49 46 5
93 Nov 19-21 54 41 5
93 Nov 2-4* 56 39 5
93 Oct 8-10 59 35 6
93 Aug 8-10* 51 43 6
93 Jun 5-6 56 38 6
93 Apr 22-24 61 35 4
c. Shares your values
96 Jan 12-15* 44 53 3
95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4
94 Dec 2-5 41 56 3
94 Jul 15-17 40 56 4
94 Apr 22-24 45 50 5
94 Mar 7-8 49 47 4
94 Jan 28-30 53 42 5
94 Jan 15-17* 44 52 4
93 Nov 2-4* 49 48 3
93 Aug 8-10* 46 51 3
93 Apr 22-24 53 42 5
d. Tough enough for
the job 96 Jan 12-15 51 47 2
94 Dec 2-5 50 48 2
94 Oct 17-19 49 50 1
94 Oct 11 50 48 2
94 Sep 19 50 48 2
94 Sep 16-18 49 49 2
94 Sep 6-7 44 55 1
94 Mar 7-8 57 40 3
94 Jul 15-17 46 52 2
94 Apr 22-24 53 44 3
94 Jan 28-30 61 36 3
94 Jan 15-17* 63 35
94 Jan 6-8 59 38 3
93 Nov 19-21 56 41 3
93 Nov 2-4* 53 43 4
93 Oct 8-10 54 41 5
93 Aug 8-10* 50 46 4
93 Jun 29-30 54 42 4
93 Jun 5-6 47 47 6
93 Apr 22-24 61 35 4
e. Cares about the needs
of people like you 96 Jan 12-15 56 42 2
94 Dec 2-5 54 44 2
94 Jan 28-30 65 32 3
94 Jul 15-17 51 46 3
94 Apr 22-24 57 39 4
94 Mar 7-8 60 38 2
94 Jan 15-17* 53 43 4
93 Jun 5-6 56 41 3
93 Apr 22-24 64 33 3
f. Keeps his promises
96 Jan 12-15 34 61 5
94 Jul 15-17 30 67 3
94 Apr 22-24 38 56 6
94 Mar 7-8 40 54 6
94 Jan 28-30 45 48 7
94 Jan 15-17* 35 61 4
93 Nov 2-4* 38 57 5
93 Aug 8-10* 33 63 4
93 Apr 22-24 44 51 5
g. Effective manager 96 Jan 12-15 42 55 3
94 Mar 7-8 49 46 5
94 Jan 15-17* 58 37 5
93 Nov 19-21 55 40 5
93 Nov 2-4* 50 45 5
93 Aug 8-10* 45 50 5
h. A man of strong
convictions 96 Jan 12-15 50 47 3
94 Jul 15-17 50 46 4
i. Has a clear plan for solving
this country's problems
96 Jan 12-15 33 63 4
j. Puts the country's interests
ahead of his own political
interests 96 Jan 12-15 48 49 3
I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and
qualities. As I read each one, please tell me whether you
think it applies or doesn't apply to Bob Dole First, ...
Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER]
RESULTS BASED ON FORM C/D -- 523 -- NATIONAL ADULTS; 5 PCT PTS
Doesn't No
Applies apply Opin
% % %
a. Can get things done
96 Jan 12-15 60 27 13
95 Mar 27-29 68 22 10
b. Honest and trustworthy
96 Jan 12-15 55 30 15
95 Mar 27-29 62 27 11
c. Shares your values
96 Jan 12-15 43 44 13
95 Mar 27-29 52 35 13
d. Tough enough for the
job 96 Jan 12-15 70 20 10
95 Mar 27-29 74 17 9
e. Cares about the needs of
people like you 96 Jan 12-15 44 45 11
95 Mar 27-29 53 36 11
f. Keeps his promises
96 Jan 12-15 43 32 25
g. Effective manager 96 Jan 12-15 61 24 15
h. A man of strong
convictions 96 Jan 12-15 67 22 11
i. Has a clear plan for solving
this country's problems
96 Jan 12-15 37 48 15
j. Puts the country's interests
ahead of his own political
interests 96 Jan 12-15 40 46 14
Back to top
SUMMARY OF CLINTON/DOLE ISSUE APPROVAL RATINGS
Clinton Dole GAP
% % +/-
Education 54 35 +19
Medicare 47 33 +14
Health care 44 35 +9
Crime 44 35 +9
Foreign affairs 48 40 +8
The economy 44 38 +6
Taxes 41 36 +5
Welfare 40 37 +3
Federal budget deficit 35 36 -1
SUMMARY OF CLINTON/DOLE QUALITIES & CHARACTERISTICS
Clinton Dole GAP
% % +/-
Cares about the needs of
people like you 56 44 +12
Puts the country's interests
ahead of his own political
interests 48 40 +8
Shares your values 44 43 +1
Has a clear plan for solving
the country's problems 33 37 -4
Keeps his promises 34 43 -9
Honest and trustworthy 40 55 -15
A man of strong convictions 50 67 -17
Can get things done 41 60 -19
Tough enough for the job 51 70 -19
Effective manager 42 61 -19
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In general, do you think the political views of [RANDOM
ORDER] are too conservative, too liberal, or about right?
And what is your opinion of the political views of ...
Too
conserv- Too About No
ative liberal right opin
a. Bill Clinton 12 41 43 4
b. Bob Dole 34 11 43 12
c. The Republican leaders
in Congress 42 12 38 8
d. The Democratic leaders
in Congress 13 41 37 9
Back to top
Thinking again about Hillary Rodham Clinton,
Do you think Hillary Clinton's influence has been generally
positive or generally negative on the Clinton Administration?
MIXED No
Positive Negative (vol.) opinion
96 Jan 12-15 40 54 2 4
94 Sep 16-18 52 38 4 6
94 Mar 7-8 65 32 1 2
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Now, thinking about the budget conflict which has been going
on in Washington, who do you think has acted more responsibly
in the negotiations over the budget -- President Clinton or
the Republican leaders in Congress?
96 Jan 12-15 96 Jan 5-7 95 Dec 15-18
45 38 48 Clinton
38 37 34 Republicans in Congress
12 14 10 NEITHER (vol.)
1 3 2 BOTH (vol.)
4 8 6 No opinion
--- --- ---
100 100 100
Next, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the
way each of the following political leaders has handled the
budget negotiations in Washington. First, ... Next, ...
[RANDOM ORDER]?
Disap- No
Approve prove opinion
Bill Clinton
96 Jan 12-15 49 49 2
96 Jan 5-7 47 48 5
95 Nov 17-18 49 38 13
95 Nov 14 48 43 9
Bob Dole
96 Jan 12-15 45 45 10
96 Jan 5-7 45 42 13
95 Nov 17-18 27 46 27
95 Nov 14 32 52 16
Newt Gingrich
96 Jan 12-15 29 61 10
96 Jan 5-7 29 58 13
95 Nov 17-18 19 62 19
95 Nov 14 22 64 14
From what you've heard or read about their proposals, which
plan to balance the federal budget in seven years do you
prefer -- [ROTATE 1-2]?
43 The one proposed by Bill Clinton or,
41 The one proposed by the Republicans in Congress
7 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.)
1 BOTH SAME/EITHER (vol.)
8 No opinion
---
100
Which of these proposals to balance the federal budget in
seven years do you prefer -- [ROTATE 1-2]?
26 A plan with larger reductions in the growth of
Medicare as well as a larger tax cut or,
65 A plan with smaller reductions in the growth of
Medicare as well as a smaller tax cut
4 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.)
5 No opinion
---
100
Which of these proposals to deal with welfare do you prefer -
- [ROTATE 1-2]?
64 A plan which makes large cuts in funding for
welfare and gives most of the authority for those
programs to the individual state governments or,
30 A plan which makes small cuts in funding for
welfare and gives most of the authority for those
programs to the federal government
3 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.)
3 No opinion
---
100
Back to top
Now we have a few questions about Whitewater and other matters
that are being investigated concerning the Clinton's. First,
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton has
handled the Whitewater investigation and other matters that
are being investigated?
Ap- Disap- No
prove prove opinion
% % %
96 Jan 12-15 36 55 9
94 Mar 25-27 50 40 10
94 Mar 11-13 39 41 20
94 Mar 7-8 43 43 14
94 Jan 15-17 36 42 22
Which of the following statements best describes your view of
Bill Clinton's actions in these matters -- Bill Clinton did
something illegal, he did something unethical, but nothing
illegal, he did not do anything seriously wrong, or are you
unsure?
25A. From what you have heard or read, which way do you lean? Do
you think Bill Clinton probably did something illegal,
probably did something unethical, but nothing illegal, or
probably did not do anything seriously wrong?
25/25A COMBINED:
Total Total
Total Un- Nothing No
Illegal ethical wrong opinion
% % % %
96 Jan 12-15 21 43 30 6
94 Dec 16-18 21 46 29 4
94 Aug 8-9 19 40 34 7
94 Jul 15-17 22 48 25 5
94 Mar 25-27 17 40 37 6
94 Mar 7-8 18 43 31 8
Which of the following statements best describes your view of
Hillary Clinton's actions in these matters -- Hillary Clinton
did something illegal, she did something unethical, but
nothing illegal, she did not do anything seriously wrong, or
are you unsure?
26A. From what you have heard or read, which way do you lean? Do
you think Hillary Clinton probably did something illegal,
probably did something unethical, but nothing illegal, or
probably did not do anything seriously wrong?
26/26A COMBINED:
Total Total
Total Un- Nothing No
Illegal ethical wrong opin
96 Jan 12-15 29 39 25 7
94 Apr 22-24 15 41 40 4
94 Mar 7-8 18 38 34 10
Which of the following statements best describes your view of
top Clinton Administration officials regarding Whitewater --
Some Clinton Administration officials did something illegal,
no Clinton Administration official did anything illegal, but
some officials did do something unethical, no Clinton
Administration official did anything seriously wrong, or are
you unsure?
27A. From what you have heard or read, which way do you lean? Do
you think that some Clinton Administration officials probably
did something illegal, some officials probably did something
unethical, but nothing illegal, or do you think that probably
no official did anything seriously wrong?
27/27a COMBINED:
Total Total
Total Un- Nothing No
Illegal ethical wrong opin
96 Jan 12-15 28 43 20 9
94 Aug 8-9 28 46 18 8
94 Mar 25-27 27 41 22 10
94 Mar 7-8 24 44 19 13
Which of these statements comes closer to your own opinion --
ROTATE:
1) The Whitewater allegations are important indicators of
Bill Clinton's character and ability to serve as president,
or 2) The Whitewater allegations are not relevant to Bill
Clinton's ability to serve as president?
96 Jan 12-15 94 Jul 15-17 94 Mar 7-8
42 40 42 Important indicators
53 55 51 Not relevant
5 5 7 No opinion
--- --- ---
100 100 100
In your view, is [ROTATE A-B] telling the truth about
Whitewater and the other matters being investigated, or is
[he/she] lying? How about [INSERT NEXT ITEM] -- in your view
is [he/she] telling the truth about Whitewater and the other
matters being investigated, or is [he/she] lying?
Telling the No
truth Lying opinion
Bill Clinton 39 45 16
Hillary Clinton 32 52 16
Back to top
Now some general questions about politics --
Some people think the government is trying to do too many
things that should be left to individuals and businesses.
Others think that government should do more to solve our
country's problems. Which comes closer to your own view?
Gov't Gov't
doing too should MIXED/
much do more No opinion
% % %
1996 Jan 12-15 58 35 7
1995 Dec 15-19 60 32 8
1994 Nov 55 37 8
1994 Oct 57 37 6
1994 Jan 54 39 7
1993 Dec 55 38 7
1993 Apr 49 45 6
1993 Mar 45 49 6
1992 Oct 48 44 8
1992 Sep 51 43 6
1992 Aug 50 43 7
Some people think the government should promote traditional
values in our society. Others think the government should
not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer
to your own view?
Should
promote Not favor
traditional any set of No
values values opinion
% % %
1996 Jan 12-15 59 36 5
1994 Nov 55 37 8
1994 Oct 55 40 5
1994 Jan 54 40 6
1993 Dec 57 37 6
1993 Apr 55 39 6
1993 Mar 53 42 5
Questions 30/31 Combined:
Pure Pure Un
Liber Popu Liber- Conserv- desig
al list tarian ative nated
% % % % %
96 Jan 12-15 13 20 20 35 12
94 Nov 2-6 15 20 20 32 13
94 Oct 22-25 16 19 21 33 11
94 Jan 15-17 16 20 22 30 14
93 Dec 17-19 13 23 22 31 11
93 Apr 22-24 17 25 20 27 11
93 Mar 22-24 20 27 19 24 10
Back to top
Finally, I have a few questions about religion. First,
What is your religious preference -- Protestant, Roman
Catholic, Jewish or an Orthodox religion such as the Greek or
Russian Orthodox Church?
Un-
Protes- Catho- Jew- Ortho- Mor- Other desig-
tant lic ish dox mon specific None nated
% % % % % % % %
96 Jan 57 24 2 1 1 4 9 2
1995 (*) 58 2
1994 (*) 60 24 2 1 1 4 6 2
1993 (*) 57 26 1 2 1 5 6 2
1992 (*) 56 26 2 1 1 4 7 2
(*) Based on annual aggregate data
What specific denomination is that?
ASKED OF -- 632 -- PROTESTANTS AND "OTHERS." BASED ON NATIONAL
ADULTS.
So. Other Meth Pres Pent Church Non
Bap Bap od byter Episc Luth ecost of De No
tist tist dist ian opal eran al Christ Other nom Op
% % % % % % % % % % %
96 Jan 12-15
9 9 8 3 2 6 3 2 8 5 3
1995 (*)
1994 (*) 10 10 10 4 2 7 3 2 8 4 4
1993 (*) 10 10 10 3 2 6 2 1 10 3 4
1992 (*) 9 10 10 5 2 7 1 -- 11 1 5
(*) Based on annual aggregate data
How often do you attend church or synagogue -- READ 1-5:
At least Almost About
once a every once a No
week week month Seldom Never opin
% % % % % %
96 Jan 12-15 33 12 15 28 11 1
95 Dec 15-18 34 11 16 28 10 1
95 Sep 22-24 31 13 14 31 11 *
95 Aug 28-30 30 13 17 31 8 1
95 May 11-14 30 12 17 31 10 *
94 Dec 16-18 30 12 16 31 11 *
94 Jun 25-28 32 14 17 27 10 *
94 Mar 28-30 35 15 16 25 9 *
92 Sep 11-15 34 10 15 26 14 1
92 Jan 3-6 31 9 15 29 16 1
How important would you say religion is to you personally
when you decide who to vote for? Is it -- READ 1-4:
14 Extremely important
22 Very important
23 Moderately important, or
41 Not important?
* No opinion
---
100
Back to top
Turning to another subject,
As you may know, there are a number of countries in the
Pacific Rim, in addition to Japan, which are emerging as
important economic powers. Which of the following do you
think will be the most important in economic terms to the
United States in the years ahead -- READ AND ROTATE 1-5:
96 Jan 12-15 93 Nov 15-16
4 7 The Philippines
5 4 Singapore
57 53 China
9 10 Korea
10 13 Taiwan
15 13 No opinion
--- ---
100 100
Next, I'd like you to rate China on a scale. If you have a
favorable opinion of China, name a number between plus one
and plus five -- the higher the number, the more favorable
your opinion. If you have an unfavorable opinion of China,
name a number between minus one and minus five --the higher
the number the more unfavorable your opinion.
Some Some Very
Very what/mostly what/mostly Unfav-
favor- favor- unfavor- or- No
able able able able Op
% % % % %
1/96 9 39 30 15 7
11/93 10 43 24 15 8
7/89 5 29 32 22 12
2/89 12 60 10 3 15
5/87 8 57 23 5 7
9/83 6 37 31 21 5
1/80 6 36 30 24 4
2/79 5 25 31 33 6
1/76 3 17 29 45 6
1967 * 5 16 75 4
TOTAL TOTAL
Favor- Unfavor- No
able able opinion
% % %
1/96 48 45 7
11/93 53 39 8
7/89 34 54 12
2/89 72 13 15
5/87 65 28 7
9/83 43 52 5
1/80 42 54 4
2/79 30 64 6
1/76 20 74 6
1967 5 91 4
NOTE: Ratings based on numeric scale (known as The Gallup Scalometer) are
combined as follows:
+5, +4 = very favorable;
+3, +2, +1 = somewhat favorable;
-1, -2, -3 = somewhat unfavorable;
-4, -5 = very unfavorable.
Over the next few years, do you think China will continue to
implement free-market economic reforms, or do you think China
will revert to a more closed economic system?
1996 1993 1989
% % %
54 53 36 Continue free-market system
30 33 43 Revert to closed system
16 14 21 No opinion
--- --- ---
100 100 100
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