Polls



N=1000 National Adults February 23-25, 1996 THIS SURVEY INCLUDED TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS WITH -- 1,002 -- NATIONAL ADULTS, AGED 18+, CONDUCTED FEBRUARY 23- 25, 1995. FOR RESULTS BASED ON SAMPLES OF THIS SIZE, ONE CAN SAY WITH 95% CONFIDENCE THAT THE MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR IS 3 PERCENTAGE POINTS. ALL QUESTIONS SHOWN IN THIS TOPLINE ARE BASED ON NATIONAL ADULTS, UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE. SOME OF THE SUBGROUPS SHOWN IN THIS REPORT ARE AS FOLLOWS: Sample Size Margin of Error Registered Voters 849 4 Registered Republican Voters 388 5 Registered Democratic Voters 396 5 Registered Republican Dole Voters Registered Republican Buchanan Voters 95 11 Back to top
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president? Ap- Disap- No prove prove opinion % % % 1996: 96 Feb 23-25 53 40 7 96 Jan 26-29 52 42 6 96 Jan 12-15 46 47 7 96 Jan 5-7 42 49 9 1995: 95 Dec 15-18 51 44 5 95 Nov 17-18 53 38 9 95 Nov 6-8 52 41 7 95 Oct 19-22 49 40 11 95 Oct 5-7 46 42 12 95 Sep 22-24 48 44 8 95 Sep 14-17 44 44 12 95 Aug 28-30 46 43 11 95 Aug 4-7 46 42 12 95 Jul 20-23 46 44 10 95 Jul 7-9 48 42 10 95 Jun 5-6 47 42 11 95 May 11-14 51 42 7 95 Apr 21-24 51 39 10 95 Apr 17-19 46 45 9 95 Apr 5-6 47 45 8 95 Mar 27-29 44 47 9 95 Mar 17-19 46 45 9 95 Feb 24-26 42 48 10 95 Feb 3-5 49 44 7 95 Jan 16-18 47 45 8 Ap- Disap- No prove prove opinion % % % 1994: 94 Dec 28-30 40 52 8 94 Dec 16-18 42 53 5 94 Dec 2-5 42 50 8 94 Nov 28-29 43 49 8 94 Nov 2-6 46 46 8 94 Oct 22-25 48 46 6 94 Oct 18-19 41 52 7 94 Oct 7-9 42 52 6 94 Sep 23-25 44 51 5 94 Sep 16-18 42 50 8 94 Sep 6-7 39 54 7 94 Aug 15-16 39 52 9 94 Aug 8-9 43 48 9 94 Jul 15-17 42 49 9 94 Jul 1-3 43 48 9 94 Jun 25-28 44 47 8 94 Jun 11-12 49 44 7 94 Jun 3-6 46 47 7 94 May 20-22 51 42 7 94 Apr 22-24 48 44 8 94 Apr 16-18 51 41 8 94 Mar 25-27 52 41 7 94 Mar 11-13 50 41 9 94 Mar 7-8 50 42 8 94 Feb 26-28 53 41 6 94 Jan 28-30 58 35 7 94 Jan 15-17 54 38 8 94 Jan 6-8 54 38 8 1993: 93 Dec 17-19 54 40 6 93 Dec 4-6 52 38 10 93 Nov 19-21 48 43 9 93 Nov 15-16 50 43 7 93 Nov 2-4 48 45 7 93 Oct 28-30 48 45 7 93 Oct 13-18 47 44 9 93 Oct 8-10 50 42 8 93 Sep 24-26 56 36 8 93 Sep 13-15 46 43 11 93 Sep 10-12 47 42 11 93 Aug 23-25 44 47 9 93 Aug 8-10 44 48 8 93 Jul 19-21 41 49 10 93 Jul 9-11 45 48 7 93 Jun 29-30 46 47 7 93 Jun 18-21 39 50 11 93 Jun 5-6 37 49 14 93 May 21-23 44 46 10 93 May 10-12 45 44 11 93 Apr 22-24 55 37 8 93 Mar 29-31 52 37 11 93 Mar 12-14 53 34 13 93 Feb 26-28 59 29 12 93 Feb 12-14 51 34 15 93 Feb 29-31 54 30 16 93 Jan 24-26 58 20 22 Back to top
Suppose the 1996 presidential election between Bill Clinton and the Republican nominee were were being held today. If Bob Dole is the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Clinton, the Democrat, or Dole, the Republican? 2A. As of today, do you lean more to Clinton, the Democrat, or to Dole, the Republican? BASED ON -- 849 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS DEPENDS/NEITHER/ Clinton Dole No opinion % % % 96 Feb 23-25 56 40 4 96 Jan 26-29 54 42 4 96 Jan 12-15 48 49 3 96 Jan 5-7 46 49 5 95 Dec 15-18 54 43 4 95 Nov 6-8 53 43 4 95 Sep 22-24 50 45 5 95 Aug 28-30 48 48 4 95 Aug 4-7 46 48 6 95 Jul 20-23 49 45 6 95 Jul 7-9 47 48 5 95 Jun 5-6 46 51 4 95 May 11-14 48 48 4 95 Apr 17-19 48 49 4 95 Feb 3-5 45 51 4 Back to top
If Pat Buchanan is the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Clinton, the Democrat, or Buchanan the Republican? 3A. As of today, do you lean more to Clinton, the Democrat, or to Buchanan the Republican? Buch- DEPENDS/NEITHER/ Clinton anan No opinion % % % 96 Feb 23-25 59 35 6 95 Jun 5-6 56 37 7 Back to top
If Lamar Alexander is the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Clinton, the Democrat, or Alexander the Republican? 4A. As of today, do you lean more to Clinton, the Democrat, or to Alexander the Republican? Alex- DEPENDS/NEITHER/ Clinton ander No opinion % % % 96 Feb 23-25 56 37 7 Back to top
Next we'd like to know your chances of voting for Ross Perot in November if he decides to run for President as an independent candidate. If Perot does run as an independent, would you READ 1-4: 7 Definitely vote for him, 16 Probably vote for him, 24 Probably not vote for him, or 50 Definitely not vote forh him? 3 No opinion --- 100 -----+ | PARTY ID FOR SCREENING 6A. -----+ Do you feel that people who hold political views similar to yours are welcome or unwelcome in the Democratic Party these days? BASED ON -- 396 -- REGISTERED DEMOCRATS; 5 PCT PTS 76 Welcome 13 Unwelcome 11 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Now here is a list of people who are running for the presidential nomination of the Republican party this year. (READ NAMES 6-14) Which of these candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president? 8A. As of today, to which of the Republican candidates do you lean most? BASED ON FIRST CHOICE OF -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; MARGIN OF ERROR = 5 PCT PTS. Alex Buch Dorn- Lug- Spec- Tay- Wil- No ander anan Dole an Forbes Gramm Keyes ar ter lor son opin % % % % % % % % % % % % 1996 Feb 23-25 14 27 41 0 8 -- 2 2 -- * -- 11 Jan 26-29 3 7 47 1 16 8 1 3 -- -- -- 14 Jan 12-15 3 5 55 * 12 6 3 2 -- -- -- 14 Jan 5-7 1 6 49 1 11 10 2 6 -- -- -- 14 1995 Dec 15-18 2 9 52 1 8 13 3 3 -- -- -- 9 Nov 6-8 2 7 48 1 6 7 1 2 3 -- -- 23 Sep 22-24 3 8 47 1 5 11 1 3 1 -- 4 16 Aug 28-30 4 7 45 1 na 11 2 2 2 -- 11 15 Aug 4-7 4 10 47 2 na 10 1 2 2 -- 4 18 Jul 7-9 4 7 47 1 na 8 1 2 2 -- 8 20 Jun 5-6 3 7 51 2 na 14 1 3 3 -- 6 10 May 11-14 2 5 54 2 na 13 1 2 2 -- 6 13 Apr 5-6 3 7 45 1 na 15 1 5 5 -- 5 13 Back to top
8B. Do you support (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q. 8) strongly or only moderately? Total Dole Buchanan 40 37 54 Strongly 60 63 46 Moderately --- --- --- 100 100 100 8C. Which one of the Republican candidates would be your second choice? BASED ON TOTAL MENTIONS OF -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; MARGIN OF ERROR = 5 PCT PTS. Alex Buch Dorn- Lug- Spec- Tay- Wil- No ander anan Dole an Forbes Gramm Keyes ar ter lor son opin % % % % % % % % % % % % 1996 Feb 23-25 35 44 66 1 20 -- 4 4 -- 2 -- 12 Jan 26-29 7 22 62 1 30 21 4 5 -- -- -- 15 Jan 12-15 8 18 69 2 23 20 6 5 -- -- -- 16 Back to top
Do you support Pat Buchanan mostly because you agree with his economic message or mostly because you agree with his views on moral and social issues? BASED ON -- 95 -- REGISTERED BUCHANAN VOTERS; 11 PCT PTS 28 Economic message 46 Moral and social views 24 BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) 1 NEITHER/SOMETHING ELSE (vol.) 1 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Are you generally pleased with the selection of the candidates running for the Republican nomination, or do you wish someone else was running for president? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS 44 Pleased 51 Someone else 5 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Suppose the choice for president in the Republican convention this year narrows down to three candidates -- Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole. Of these three, which one would you prefer to have the Republican convention select? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS 18 Lamar Alexander 29 Pat Buchanan 49 Bob Dole 4 No opinion --- 100 Suppose the choice for president in the Republican convention this year narrows down to only two candidates. If the two candidates are [INSERT ITEM, ROTATE START], which one would you prefer to have the Republcian convention select? Next, what if the choice narrows down to [INSERT NEXT ITEM] - - in that case which would you prefer to have the Republican convention select? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan 61 Dole 35 Buchanan 4 No opinion --- 100 Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander 65 Dole 30 Alexander 5 No opinion --- 100 Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander 46 Buchanan 44 Alexander 10 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Regardless of which Republican presidential candidate you prefer, which one do you think has the best chance of beating Bill Clinton in November? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS 8 Lamar Alexander 21 Pat Buchanan 56 Bob Dole 0 Bob Dornan * Steve Forbes 0 Alan Keyes 0 Richard Lugar 0 Morry Taylor 6 NONE (vol.) 2 ALL EQUALLY (vol.) 1 OTHER (vol.) 6 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him. First,.. Next, [RANDOM ORDER] Back to top
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Bill Clinton 96 Feb 23-25 60 37 * 3 96 Jan 12-15 54 44 0 2 95 Nov 6-8 59 38 * 3 95 Sep 22-24 55 41 * 4 95 Aug 4-7 51 44 0 5 95 Jul 7-9 57 40 0 3 95 Apr 17-19 56 42 1 1 95 Mar 17-19 51 45 * 4 95 Jan 16-18 56 42 * 2 94 Dec 28-30 48 49 0 3 94 Nov 28-29 50 47 0 3 94 Sep 6-7 47 50 0 3 94 Jul 15-17 49 48 * 3 94 Apr 22-24 56 41 0 3 94 Mar 25-27 56 40 0 4 94 Mar 7-8 59 38 * 3 94 Jan 15-17 60 37 0 3 94 Jan 6-8 62 35 -- 3 93 Nov 19-21 55 41 -- 4 93 Nov 15-16 56 38 -- 6 93 Nov 2-4 54 42 -- 4 93 Sep 24-26 63 32 -- 5 93 Aug 8-10 53 42 -- 5 93 Jul 19-21 51 45 -- 4 93 Jun 5-6 48 44 -- 8 93 Apr 22-24 63 32 -- 5 93 Jan 29-31 65 27 -- 8 93 Jan 18-19 66 26 -- 8 92 Nov 10-11 58 35 -- 7 Back to top
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Bob Dole 96 Feb 23-25 49 43 1 7 96 Jan 12-15 44 40 3 13 95 Nov 6-8 42 44 4 10 95 Sep 22-24 42 43 4 11 95 Aug 4-7 47 34 4 15 95 Jul 7-9 59 29 4 8 95 Apr 17-19 57 32 2 9 95 Mar 17-19 53 29 5 13 95 Jan 16-18 54 31 4 11 94 Dec 28-30 54 30 4 12 94 Nov 28-29 58 26 6 10 94 Jul 15-17 51 30 7 12 94 Jan 15-17 52 29 4 15 93 Aug 8-10 42 37 -- 21 93 Mar 22-24 54 26 -- 20 Back to top
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Pat Buchanan 96 Feb 23-25 38 49 2 11 96 Jan 12-15 25 49 10 16 95 Jul 7-9 30 40 10 20 95 Apr 17-19 27 43 9 21 95 Mar 17-19 29 35 10 26 Back to top
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Lamar Alexander 96 Feb 23-25 40 27 10 23 96 Jan 12-15 13 16 50 21 Back to top
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Steve Forbes 96 Feb 23-25 32 42 8 18 96 Jan 12-15 26 12 34 28 Back to top
Favor- Unfav- NEVER No able orable HEARD OF opin % % % % Ross Perot 96 Feb 23-25 38 52 * 10 96 Jan 12-15 37 50 1 12 95 Aug 4-7 40 46 2 12 95 Apr 17-19 41 52 1 6 94 Sep 6-7 40 50 1 9 94 Jul 15-17 39 50 1 10 94 Apr 22-24 37 54 * 9 94 Jan 15-17 36 56 1 7 93 Nov 2-4 44 44 -- 12 93 Aug 8-10 52 38 -- 10 93 Mar 22-24 66 28 -- 6 L.V.: 92 Nov 1-2 46 46 -- 8 R.V. trend: 92 Oct 22-23 56 32 -- 12 92 Sep 28-30 20 66 -- 14 92 Jul 17-18 38 47 -- 15 92 Jul 16 44 35 -- 21 92 Jul 6-8 44 37 -- 19 92 Jun 26-30 48 34 -- 18 92 Jun 12-14 52 30 -- 18 92 May 18-20 50 25 -- 25 92 May 7-10 48 16 -- 36 92 Apr 20-22 41 23 -- 36 92 Mar 31-Apr 1 32 10 -- 58 Next, as I read the names of some Republicans running for the Republican presidential nomination, please tell me your chances of voting for each one if he were to become the Republican candidate against Bill Clinton in November. First, if [INSERT ITEM, ROTATE START] becomes the Republican nominee, would you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him in November? Next, what are chances of voting for [INSERT NEXT ITEM] if he becomes the Republican nominee? Defin- Defin- Prob- Probably itely No itely ably not not opin % % % % % a. Lamar Alexander 16 22 27 30 5 b. Pat Buchanan 17 18 20 42 3 c. Bob Dole 24 20 20 33 3 Back to top
Turning now to Congress, If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? 16A. As of today, would you lean more to the Democratic Party's candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate? BASED ON -- 849 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; 4 PCT PTS Democratic Republican Undecided/ candidate candidate other % % % 96 Feb 23-25 48 46 6 96 Jan 12-15 46 47 7 96 Jan 5-7 44 48 8 95 Dec 15-18 49 43 8 95 Nov 6-8 47 46 7 95 Aug 28-30 43 47 10 95 Jul 7-9 46 47 7 94 Nov 2-6 46 46 8 Previous On-Year Elections 92 Sep 28-30 52 39 8 92 Apr 20-22 47 44 9 88 May 13-15 52 37 11 84 Apr 6-9 55 45 -- 80 Aug 15-18 57 34 9 80 Feb/Mar 53 37 10 76 Oct 28-30 (LV) 53 39 8 Back to top
On some more general issues, Please tell me whether you are worried or not worried about each of the following happening in the next few years. Not No Worried worried opinion a. That you or your (husband/wife) will lose a job 36 63 1 b. That you will not be able to maintain your standard of living 53 46 1 Back to top
Now, thinking about the budget conflict which has been going on in Washington, who do you think has acted more responsibly in the negotiations over the budget -- President Clinton or the Republican leaders in Congress? 96 Feb 23-25 95 Dec 15-18 % % 44 48 Clinton 35 34 Republicans in Congress 15 10 NEITHER/BOTH/NO DIFFERENCE (vol.) 6 2 No opinion --- --- 100 100 Back to top
Next, I have a question about the conservative Christian political movement sometimes known as the "religious right." Do you generally support or oppose the political views of the religious right, or don't you know enough about this group to have an opinion? 20 Support 27 Oppose 52 Don't know enough 1 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
Regardless of which Republican candidate you support, please tell me if you think Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan or Bob Dole would best handle each of the following issues. First, ... Next, ... ROTATED: BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS NONE/ Alex- Buch- OTHER No ander anan Dole (vol.) opin % % % % % a. The rate of violent crime in the United States 8 35 40 3 14 b. The quality of education in public schools through grade 12 20 28 37 3 12 c. The availability of good jobs in the U.S. 16 28 40 3 13 d. The nation's economy 15 24 50 3 8 e. Foreign trade 11 17 60 1 11 f. Immigration 9 39 37 1 14 Next, I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. Regardless of which Republican candidate you support, please tell me if you think it applies most to Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan or Bob Dole. First, ... (Next, ..) (ROTATED) BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS NONE/ Alex- Buch- OTHER No ander anan Dole (vol.) opin % % % % % a. Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems 11 28 38 14 9 b. Is honest and trustworthy 16 27 36 13 8 c. Shares your values 17 32 40 4 7 d. Can get things done 9 23 57 4 7 e. Cares about the needs of people like you 16 34 34 9 7 f. Shares your views on the role of religion in politics 13 30 34 5 18 Overall, do you think [INSERT ITEM, ROTATE START]'s candidacy will have a good effect or a bad effect on the Republican Party? Next, do you think [INSERT NEXT ITEM] candidacy will have a good effect or a bad effect on the Republican Party? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Good Bad NEITHER No effect effect (vol.) opin % % % % Lamar Alexander 50 25 6 19 Pat Buchanan 46 43 2 19 Bob Dole 71 20 4 5 For each of the following candidates, please say whether you think his political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal. First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER] BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Too conserv- About Too No ative right liberal opin % % % % Lamar Alexander 9 48 17 26 Pat Buchanan 38 34 17 11 Bob Dole 20 54 16 10 Do you feel that people who hold political views similar to yours are welcome or unwelcome in the Republican Party these days? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Total Dole Buchanan 75 87 68 Welcome 19 10 28 Unwelcome 6 3 4 No opinion --- --- --- 100 100 100 In recent days do you think Pat Buchanan has been treated fairly or unfairly by most Republican leaders? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Total Dole Buchanan 45 Fairly 39 Unfairly 16 No opinion --- 100 100 100 Which is more important to you in this year's presidential election -- the country's economic problems or the country's moral problems? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Total Dole Buchanan 49 Economic problems 42 Moral problems 6 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.) 3 No opinion --- 100 100 100 Which of the following statements comes closer to your own view about free trade -- Free trade would be good for the United States because it would help the U.S. economy by expanding exports, or Free trade would be bad for the U.S. because it would end up costing the U.S. jobs. BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS Total Dole Buchanan 52 Good for the U.S. 38 Bad for the U.S. 2 NEITHER/OTHER (vol.) 8 No opinion --- 100 100 100 Back to top
Thinking now about Bob Dole Do you feel Bob Dole is too old to be president, or not? 96 Feb 23-25 95 Jul 20-23* % % 27 34 Yes, too old 67 64 No, not too old 6 2 No opinion --- --- 100 100 * Different question wording: "Apart from whether you would ever vote for Bob Dole or not, do you think that at age 72 he is too old to be running for president, or is he not too old?" Thinking about Pat Buchanan -- in your opinion are his views too extreme for him to serve as president, or are they not too extreme? 29A. IF TOO EXTREME: Why do you feel that Pat Buchanan's views are too extreme -- mostly because of his positions on economic issues, or mostly because of his positions on social issues? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS 54 Yes, too extreme 10 Economic Issues 31 Social Issues 10 BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) 3 No opinion --- 54 35 No, not too extreme 11 No opinion --- 100 Back to top
45. In general, do you think the United Nations is doing a good job or a poor job in trying to solve the problems it has had to face? No Good Poor opinion % % % 96 Feb 46 46 8 95 Aug 35 56 9 93 Jun 46 40 14 93 Mar 52 44 4 90 Oct 54 34 12 85 Aug 28 54 18 85 Feb 38 44 18 83 Oct 36 51 13 82 Jun 36 49 15 80 Sep 31 53 16 78 Feb 40 39 21 75 Nov 33 51 16 71 Nov 35 43 22 70 Sep 44 40 16 67 Jul 50 35 16 54 Jul 58 25 16 53 Dec 55 30 15 46. Do you think the federal government has become so large and pwerful that is poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens, or don't you think so? BASED ON -- 388 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS; 5 PCT PTS 96 Feb 23-25 95 Apr 23-24 % % 52 39 Yes, immediate threat 43 58 Don't think so 5 3 No opinion --- --- 100 100

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  • January 26-29, 1996
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