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Web-only Exclusives November 30, 2000 From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead Bad news for the Philippines - and some others From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights? |
FEBRUARY 18, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 6
Reinventing Estrada
He works longer hours, aims to focus on priorities, and pledges never to play favorites. Is it for real or just for PR?
By RICARDO SALUDO and ANTONIO LOPEZ Manila
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 Besides a more presidential style and dress, Estrada is banking on his resurgent economic team to renew his government Edwin Tuyay for Asiaweek |
In early January, Olivier gave a leadership seminar in Manila, based on Shakespeare's Henry V. At the start of the play, the new king had to turn his back on his wild, youthful days in London's watering holes and embrace the dignity and duty of monarchy. "To leave the pub for the castle," Olivier said of the new leader's task, to end one's carousing and keep a royal distance from former drinking buddies.
One seminar participant then remarked that when he became president, "Estrada brought the pub into the castle." Since he took office nearly 20 months ago, there had been widespread talk of a "midnight cabinet" of cronies making deals and influencing policy over glasses of Johnnie Walker Blue Label whisky. The media had filled countless columns about friends and relatives getting choice appointments and special treatment. Adding to the inebriated image was the apparent lack of a strong legislative and policy agenda in Estrada's first year. Not to mention the late-morning start to his work day, which critics blamed on all-night partying.
Whether that picture is true or not, Estrada now aims to change it. These days he reads more and starts work earlier. "I begin at 8:30 and work up to two in the morning," he said in a 105-minute meeting with Asiaweek, his most wide-ranging talk with an international publication in months (see interview). The president also spoke of a renewed drive for national priorities, including food security, mass housing, national unity and peace, and a war on the "Three C's" plaguing the Third World: crime, cronyism and corruption.
Estrada is said to be trying to distance himself from his nocturnal friends, and listens more and more to a resurgent team of top technocrats. Business people have lauded his ongoing cabinet revamp. The president made appointments to key portfolios, including finance, tax, customs, trade, interior and local government, and chief of staff, with more to come (watch justice, tourism and natural resources). On a personal level, Estrada has changed his drink of choice, from scotch, his old favorite, to red wine, which he says is good for the heart.
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Estrada said he had told supporters and friends, "I will repay you [with] good government that serves all, not just a few; a healthy business climate, not preferential business deals; efficient markets to compete in, not monopolies to exploit with." He repeated the pledge of better, impartial governance at a five-hour meeting with foreign investment-fund managers on Jan. 30. They had told him that Manila's stock market had lagged others in Asia because of the administration's perceived cronyism and lack of direction, particularly in further liberalizing the economy.
Many of the president's erstwhile critics seem willing to give him a chance. At least one leading newspaper, The Philippine Star, has written approvingly about his attempt to reform. The Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines, pastors of the nation's largest religious group, has adopted a policy of avoiding public criticism. "As president of the CBCP, my approach will be more moderate," says archbishop Orlando Quevedo. "I would rather dialogue with President Erap [Estrada] than come out with pronouncements in the papers, because it will be counterproductive. He is our president ... we wish to support him."
So besides starting work much earlier and talking big about his goals, what exactly is Estrada doing to get his vision going? For starters, he has a new three-letter acronym: ECC. The Economic Coordinating Council will formulate key development policies, and Estrada promised to refer all major contracts to the body before approving any - a final check against sleaze.
The council combines veteran businessmen like Finance Secretary Jose Pardo, Bangko Sentral Governor Rafael Buenaventura and Trade and Industry Secretary Manuel Araneta Roxas, with sharp academics, including new chief of staff Aprodicio Laquian, Socio-economic Planning Secretary Felipe Medalla and Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno.
Most of them are respected technocrats, while two are no-nonsense politicians, Roxas and Agriculture's Edgardo Angara. The ECC secretary-general is former congressman Margarito Teves, an economist with a clean reputation. The council also invites private-sector observers to join their deliberations. In attendance recently were banker and ex-PM Cesar Virata, accounting doyen Washington SyCip, and Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, head of the giant Ayala group.
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What He Is Aiming For
• THE ECONOMY: Average annual growth of 5.2% for the Estrada years - at least 6% for 2001-2004 • FOOD: Self-sufficiency in rice by 2003 and exports of the grain by 2004 • HOUSING: By 2004, 1.6m. low-cost homes with 30-yr loans at 9% interest • SECURITY: Peace pacts with communist and separatist rebels by June - or military victory by December • GOVERNANCE: Reduction of state corruption by at least 40% • CONSTITUTION: The lifting of limits on foreign investment in key sectors, to raise capital for needed infrastructure |
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But will he heed its word, especially when his businessmen-friends come calling for sweet deals? Well, several ECC members are also very close to the president and could match the clout of would-be cronies. Angara was his running mate, whose party joined forces with Estrada's. Buenaventura was a high school classmate. Medalla belongs to the faction of Robert Aventajado, an intimate presidential adviser who oversees 116 "flagship projects" worth a total of $20 billion.
Chief of Staff Laquian aims to be with Estrada nearly all his working hours, to keep an eye on favor-seekers. Even on weekends, says Buenaventura, "we will be with the president in his Tagaytay Highlands hideaway." MIT-trained Laquian will also vet contracts worth at least $1.2 million, to block wheeler-dealers in the palace inner sanctum itself (see A President's Guardian Angel).
Letting his technocrats have their way has certainly paid off for Estrada. GNP surged 3.6% last year, rebounding from -0.1% in 1998. Inflation fell to 6.6%, from 9.8%. In January it was 2.6% annualized, the lowest in 13 years. The prime lending rate went from 14% last year to 8.5%. Reserves hit nearly $15 billion, from $8 billion. Agricultural output leapt 6.8%, after averaging 1.2% for years. Exports surged 19% to a record $35 billion.
Cabinet changes expected by April may further improve government performance. The president may replace Tourism Secretary Gemma Cruz Araneta, who has apparently failed to rev up her industry, and Environment and Natural Resources' Antonio Cerilles, who has been criticized for favoring selective logging. Also under pressure: Justice Secretary Serafin Cuevas, for including a priest killer among convicts granted presidential pardons.
Executive Secretary Ronaldo Zamora may opt to quit by mid-year to run for Congress. He wants to become the House Speaker, the country's fourth-highest official. Another palace insider, Leonora de Jesus, has vacated her office as head of the Presidential Management Staff, and is waiting to take over a housing department to be created this year.
Despite the technocrats' overweening presence, Estrada has vowed to become a hands-on leader. "The president is impatient for results," says Buenaventura. "He nags you and calls up constantly to follow up implementation of projects," adds Medalla. When Estrada noticed delays in projects under Medalla's agency, he transferred them to Aventajado.
Also changed is the president's personal style. "At the start of my term, I took on an informal, folksy dress, manner and speech," he told Asiaweek. The casual jacket and off-the-cuff remarks have now given way to formal attire and interviews, to project a more presidential image.
Nearly all Estrada watchers agree that his makeover bid was due to the precipitous fall in his approval ratings since July. "A movie actor hates bad reviews," says Medalla. But the desire for good press has a troublesome side: Estrada's high sensitivity to criticism. He calls local media "abusive" and keeps harping on a "three-D" conspiracy of disinformation, disaffection and destabilization against him. That makes many people think he is simply refusing to heed all comments.
Indeed, Estrada often tries to deflect blame, instead of taking corrective action. Take the case of Norberto Manero. The ex-convict killed a priest, reportedly ate bits of his brain, and once escaped from prison. Due to an oversight, he was granted a presidential pardon last December. In the ensuing controversy, Estrada was content just to make excuses, when he could have Manero jailed again for violating parole, and the killer's life sentence reinstated (it was commuted based on a falsified document).
Others fear that should his ratings improve, Estrada might slip back into his old ways. Congressman Jose Salceda, a former topnotch stock analyst, says: "If technocrats are there and there is competence in governance, the economy will move forward - and people might even condone corruption."
Now if that leads Estrada to backslide, it would be bad, especially for him. People who hope to bring him down or take advantage of him wish he would never change for the better. Most Filipinos hope he will. Who of them will get their way? It's up to Joseph Ejercito Estrada.
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