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Web-only Exclusives November 30, 2000 From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead Bad news for the Philippines - and some others From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights? |
MARCH
10, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 9
Hidden
Overture
Taiwan's
new leader should take up China's offer of 'equal' talks
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ALSO
IN ASIAWEEK On the
surface, there is much to fret about in China's new White Paper on relations
with Taiwan. The most obvious is the document's aggressive tone, threatening
war if Taipei leaders refuse indefinitely to discuss reunification. Beijing's
belated response to President Lee Teng-hui's description of Taiwan as
having a "state-to-state relationship" with China has upped the stakes
on this sensitive issue. Previously, Beijing listed only two potential
triggers of war: a Taiwan declaration of independence and foreign intervention.
Yet, beneath the swagger was a significant concession by China. If whoever
becomes Taiwan's new president after the Mar. 18 election decides to respond
to the offer, it could even spur a breakthrough in cross-strait ties.
Any escalation in the war of words is clearly worrisome, of course. China's
latest threat creates anxieties - and a backlash - in Taiwan, where memories
of the mainland's provocative missile "tests" of 1996 are still vivid.
And the broadside has handed fresh ammunition to Taiwan's many friends
and China's numerous foes in Washington, where the terms of Beijing's
entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) still await Congressional
approval. Coinciding with a delivery to the mainland of modern, Russian-made
destroyers, the document also fueled fears of an expansionist China. Already,
some contenders in America's own presidential election are urging a tougher
line against Beijing.
Largely unnoted amid the sound and fury are several peace overtures in
the White Paper. The most important is China's unprecedented offer to
Taiwan to conduct any future negotiations toward reunification as equals
- long a Taipei demand. "The Chinese government hopes that on the basis
of the one-China principle, the two sides will hold consultations on an
equal footing and discuss national reunification together," says the lengthy
document. It repeats the point in four separate places. Significantly,
it adds that "we have never spoken of negotiations between the 'central
and local authorities.' "
China also promised that any matter is open to negotiation as long as
both sides agree there is only "one China," whose definition is left vague.
That presumably includes the nature of political ties between island and
mainland, beyond each side retaining its own distinctive system. Indeed,
in recent years, the mainland has privately suggested that even the country's
name could be changed. A reunified China, goes the scenario, would be
called neither the People's Republic nor the Republic of China, but a
mutually acceptable alternative.
When Beijing negotiates, it often hides a major concession behind a barrage
of bluster. Yet Taiwan's leaders - especially the leading presidential
candidates - are unlikely to have missed the olive branch from the mainland.
The day after the White Paper was released, vice chairman Lin Chong-pin
of Taipei's policymaking Mainland Affairs Council proposed that both sides
return to a consensus on "one China," while leaving the definition flexible.
If Taiwan soft-pedals Lee's "two-states" position, the inauguration of
a new president would present a promising opportunity for both sides to
move their relationship onto a fresh, more positive plane.
The first imperative is to get talks moving again at a senior level. China's
chief Taiwan negotiator, Wang Daohan, was about to visit Taiwan when Lee
made his state-to-state remarks last September. The dialogue has since
been suspended. Recently, mainland officials floated the notion of a meeting
between Wang and his Taiwan counterpart Koo Chen-fu in Singapore, where
they had their first encounter in 1993. The resumption of direct talks
would be reassuring not only to Taiwan's people, but also to the region
and the world. Moreover, it would enable Beijing to score important points
in Washington, which has been keen to see discussions resume.
China must, however, avoid setting any deadline for reunification - a
demand by some hardliners in Beijing. The reality is clear enough: The
only way peaceful unification - the stated desire of both principals,
plus the U.S. - will occur is if the mainland were to become a lot more
like Taiwan, especially with respect to political and civil liberties.
That will take a long time. For Beijing, the recovery of Taiwan will be
a vastly more complex affair than that of Hong Kong or Macau. So President
Jiang Zemin and his successors should not feel obliged to match Deng Xiaoping's
feat in bringing those ex-colonies back into the fold. To set a deadline
for Taiwan would not only create trust-wrecking tensions on the island,
but also limit Beijing's own room to maneuver. Worst of all, it might
force a war dreaded everywhere - including in China.
In the meantime, much can be done. The two sides should expand the many
business and cultural contacts that they have been making. They could
cooperate more in international forums - starting with the WTO, which
both are expected to join soon. Beijing should give Taiwan more of the
"international space" it craves. As mutual confidence grows, the two sides
could work toward an exchange of pledges: Taiwan to forswear independence
while China renounces the use of force. It is on such incremental advances
that lasting peace - and eventual unification - can be built.
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