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June 16, 2000 VOL. 29 NO. 23 | SEARCH ASIAWEEK Weathering the Pressure The junta fails to dent opposition popularity By ROGER MITTON Sagaing Thirty-eight members of the opposition National League for Democracy in Sagaing, near Mandalay, had resigned "because they no longer wish to participate in the NLD's party politics." So said Myanmar's ruling junta last week. In fact, such reports appear on a daily basis. Party members claim they are pressured to quit and that many succumb. "They are afraid of repercussions," says Mandalay-based party official Ko Kyi. "The military wants to destroy the NLD." The attempt may be backfiring. Despite the relentless crackdown, the NLD, led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, retains its nationwide popularity. In historic Sagaing, where the party has endured severe harassment, local sentiment is firmly supportive. Near the town's central market is a gold-embossed statue of Aung San, the nation's Independence hero and Suu Kyi's father. "He was a great man," says the elderly custodian of a local temple. "I think that his daughter is the same." The NLD, as Suu Kyi told Asiaweek last year, "is smaller now because a lot of our members have been forced to resign or put into prison. But it's tougher and more tightly knit." In May 1990, the party won 392 seats out of the 485 contested in Myanmar's first democratic elections since military rule began 30 years earlier. But the generals ceded it no role in running the country, let alone allowing it to form a government. The people, however, have not forgotten that result, and few doubt that the NLD would repeat it if another poll were held. The military, of course, disagrees. "People are fed up with the NLD because it doesn't help them," says spokesman Col. Hla Min. "Opposing foreign aid and investment, opposing tourism -- it's like breaking the rice bowl of the man on the street." Yet last week, when the NLD held a mass gathering at its Yangon headquarters to commemorate the 10th anniversary of its election victory, many citizens showed up despite preventive barriers. The regime denies it is cracking down on the party or forcing members to quit. "We don't need to crack down on the NLD, because they are already cracked," says deputy national planning minister Brig.-Gen. Zaw Tun. Ironically, the military's bullying tactics have reinforced the party's strength. "The daily newspaper stories about dozens of NLD members resigning makes it seem like there must be millions in the party," says a Yangon-based diplomat. "That's not only stupid, it's counterproductive." But the generals believe that the strategy lets the populace -- and party colleagues -- know that Suu Kyi's followers are on a downward slope. For most Myanmar people, the key point is that the NLD offers an alternative to the regime -- which they regard as having ruined their resource-rich country by mismanagement. The party will retain its appeal as long as the military administration pursues inept economic policies and the NLD has Suu Kyi. The impact of "Aung San" in her name is impossible to overestimate. Even the government, while it has removed her father's image from banknotes, routinely pays homage to him in official announcements. Over the past decade, Suu Kyi has undoubtedly proved that she is more than just her father's daughter. She has developed into a consummate and courageous politician, who can sway multitudes as few other Asian leaders can. "At NLD meetings, the others on the central committee all read from texts and we fall asleep," notes a diplomat. "When Suu Kyi speaks, it's always impromptu and we all listen. What she says, that's it." Another reason behind the enduring support for Suu Kyi and her party: There is no alternative. The other political parties have such low profiles that even government officials have trouble naming them. For its part, the regime denies that it lacks public support. "Some people say they don't like the army, but the people are not suffering as they did in the socialist time [under former strongman Ne Win]," says Zaw Tun. "We are satisfying the people." Suu Kyi counters that it is the suffering brought about by the junta's misguided economic policies "which have swung so much support in our favor over the last couple of years." Could that backing galvanize the long-suffering population into action? "I don't sense it," says a Western diplomat in Yangon. "The NLD has called on the people to support it. They said the [election] anniversary would be a defining moment. Expatriate groups called on the people to take action. But nothing happened." So what next? The diplomat throws up his arms. "I don't know," he admits. "Does the NLD sit back and hope the economy self-destructs? Do they hope the military will split?" Many observers yearn for a compromise to bring relief to the people. There is hope that new United Nations special envoy Razali Ismail, who will go to Myanmar this month to speak with both sides, might make progress. As NLD chairman Aung Shwe said recently: "We have to have give-and-take." Yet both sides will clearly hang tough. "The future will be very difficult and uncertain for us," says NLD division secretary Kan Tun in Mandalay. "But Suu Kyi is still strong and popular nationwide. We think the NLD will come to power in 10 years." That is an eternity in politics. For the good of Myanmar, many are hoping that a resolution will come a lot sooner. Write to Asiaweek at mail@web.asiaweek.com
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