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Web-only Exclusives November 30, 2000 From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead Bad news for the Philippines - and some others From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights? |
DECEMBER 24, 1999 VOL. 25 NO. 51
The Gloves Are Coming Off
As Beijing watches from the sidelines, a money scandal taints the front-runner in a high-stakes presidential campaign
By ALEJANDRO REYES
With just three months to go before landmark presidential elections on March 18, a money scandal has left no doubt that Taiwan is in for one of its most toughly fought political contests yet - and one of the dirtiest. On Dec. 10, ruling Kuomintang legislator Yang Chi-hsiung publicly asked independent front-runner James Soong Chu-yu to explain how the candidate's then-24-year-old son Chen-yuan came to buy $4.4 million in securities in 1992 when Soong was KMT secretary-general. The finance ministry said it would launch an investigation into possible tax evasion.
Soong at first explained that a party elder had channeled the funds to accounts under his son's and sister's names. Days later, he claimed that President Lee Teng-hui had entrusted the money to be drawn on as Lee himself determined. Soong said the money was used, among other purposes, to defray expenses of the family of Lee's late predecessor Chiang Ching-kuo. Soong had administered the fund for seven years, but insisted that neither he nor any relative used a cent and that all transactions were accounted for. In October this year, as Lee moved to have his former protégé expelled from the KMT, Soong says he returned the money.
Soong confessed that lingering loyalty to the KMT made it difficult to divulge details of the slush fund, but allegations of impropriety had forced his hand. "Mentioning these things makes me feel deeply uneasy," he admitted. Lee poured scorn on Soong's story. It was "a sheer lie, completely groundless," the president declared, saying that "what Soong did was tantamount to embezzlement of party money." While the attack may have backfired on the KMT, the initial revelation about the money was meant to be the first serious salvo against party renegade Soong. KMT officials have been priming reporters for more ugly revelations to come, including tales of alleged kickbacks and love affairs. The aim: to cut into Soong's opinion-poll lead. For months, he had been coasting on percentages in the low to mid-30s. That put him ahead of the KMT's Lien Chan, who registered about 25% support, and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Shui-bian, who lagged at around 20%. But polls taken just after the allegations against Soong were released showed him at 27%, Chen at 31% and Lien at 18%. With at least a quarter of the electorate undecided - some surveys say nearly 40% have yet to make up their minds - the three camps are locked in a high-stakes race which will determine relations with China and consequently have a bearing on the security and stability of Asia.
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In the weeks following the devastating Sept. 21 earthquake that rocked Taiwan, Lien gained some brief momentum as the government's point man on relief efforts. Because of his imperious manner, the Taiwan-born Lien has never been able to win the same popularity that Lee has consistently enjoyed. Yet he and running mate Premier Vincent Siew recently managed to top at least one poll. The KMT's superior money machine and grassroots network could do the trick.
On Nov. 11, Soong picked native Taiwanese cardiologist Chang Chao-hsiung as his running mate, a selection aimed at winning over those reluctant to vote for a mainland-born candidate and drawing support from the DPP. Chang had served as an adviser to Chen on healthcare issues. While portraying himself as a reformer, Soong is desperate to de-emphasize his mainland roots. Origins do matter in Taiwan politics.
After a Nov. 15 party meeting convened by Lee, seasoned campaigner Huang Kun-huei was made KMT secretary-general. A week later, Lien brought in foreign minister Jason Hu, a bright high-flyer with a sharp wit, as his new campaign manager. The changes signaled a get-tough attitude in the Lien camp. Yet as Lien's post-earthquake glow has faded, speculation has been brewing that if his team fails to gain a strong lead closer to polling day, Lee might shift support to Chen. The first oppositionist to become Taipei mayor (he lost his re-election bid to the KMT in 1998), Chen is a feisty pro-independence Taiwanese who is said to enjoy cordial relations with the president. Lee's critics have long alleged that he is a closet supporter of the DPP. The president's controversial call for cross-strait ties to be on a special "state-to-state" footing - a proposition which riled Beijing - is not far removed from the DPP's assertion of Taiwan's de facto independence.
To boost his support among women, Chen has chosen feminist and democracy activist Annette Lu as his running mate.If the Soong scandal snowballs, Chen will benefit by arguing that his rivals are mired in old-style money politics. The former mayor could pull off a repeat of the 1994 Taipei contest when he romped to victory in a three-way race. But if his campaign falters, Chen might yet throw his support behind the KMT to block Soong, the preferred choice of the traditional pro-reunification camp.
While corruption will be a top election issue, cross-strait relations will be a critical factor. China wants to avoid its mistake of 1996, when the mainland tried to influence the outcome of Taiwan's first direct presidential polls by carrying out military maneuvers and missile tests off the island. Those exercises prompted the U.S. to dispatch two aircraft carriers to the area in a tense face-off with China. The saber-rattling sealed a Lee landslide. Beijing may try to sweeten its image in coming months. Last week, China unveiled a law to protect Taiwan investments on the mainland. Meanwhile, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. told a pro-reunification group from Taiwan that Chen would be an unacceptable president, but the mainland could live with either Soong or Lien. If Soong wins, ties would likely warm soon after. Lien would leave Beijing ambivalent. With Chen, who knows?
Lee will do anything to get his man elected. That includes baiting Beijing. In a Dec. 8 speech, he said that the U.S., Japan and other countries worried that a Nationalist loss would undermine regional security. Lien, who supports Lee's "state-to-state" concept, stirred the pot by proposing that Taiwan develop a long-range surface-to-surface missile system to counter a mainland military build-up. The stakes in next year's election are rising even higher.
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