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Subcontinental Drift: Call Delhi's Bluff
Why Kashmir's rebels should negotiate with the Indian government
By APARISIM GHOSH

May 11, 2000
Web posted at 8:30 p.m. Hong Kong time, 8:30 a.m. EDT


ALSO
Subcontinental Drift's Aparisim Ghosh presents Conversations
'Kashmir is not an animal to be carved up'
Exclusive interview with recently released Kashmiri separatist Yasin Malik (transcript)

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  ASIAWEEK
Intelligence
The story behind today's news from the editors of Asiaweek

From Our Correspondent
Personal perspectives on the news
When I met Yasin Malik in his Srinagar home last fall, the boyish chief of the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front was expecting to be arrested at any moment. The Indian general election had just begun, and the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, an umbrella organization of separatist groups, had called for a boycott of the polls in Indian-held Kashmir. Voting in Srinagar and its surrounding areas had been very thin--as little as 1% in some polling booths. The success of the boycott was a huge embarrassment for New Delhi, and Malik knew that he and other Hurriyat leaders would be punished.

"They will take me again," he told me, in the matter-of-fact way a man might talk about an ordinary day at the office. "They will put me in jail, then they will release me again to show the world how benign the Indian state is."

 INTERACTIVE  
The Subcontinental Drift message board -- sound-off about the news in South Asia to TIME
 
Sure enough, a few days after our meeting, he was thrown back in jail for having helped organize the boycott. He was released on May 3, in a gesture of New Delhi's newfound eagerness to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Kashmiri rebellion. Lal Krishna Advani, India's Home Minister, has said the government will soon open talks with Malik and other Hurriyat leaders.

Malik, 32, is deeply skeptical of Delhi's sincerity. Speaking over the phone on Wednesday, he pointed out that Advani had insisted the talks be held within the framework of the Indian constitution, which states that Kashmir is an integral part of India. Malik says this precondition effectively rules out any peace talks: "If one party wants to impose its agenda on the other, then what can we discuss--the weather?" He believes Advani is trying to win diplomatic brownie points in the international community by making an offer the Hurriyat cannot but refuse.

[Click here to read an edited, abridged transcript of the interview]

But by refusing to go to the negotiating table because of a technicality, Malik and the Hurriyat are committing a strategic and political blunder. The time is ripe for real progress in Kashmir: in the afterglow of U.S. President Bill Clinton's visit to India last month, Delhi is more likely to make concessions than at any point in recent memory. Clinton may have promised to keep the U.S. out of the Indo-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir, but he also made it clear that Washington expects Delhi to come up with a peaceful solution, soon. Hence Advani's overture toward Malik and his ilk. A year from now, when the Clinton visit has been forgotten, the Indian government will be much less inclined to parley with the Hurriyat.

 CONVERSATIONS
Ghosh Subcontinental Drift's Aparisim Ghosh presents Conversations
Yasin Malik, chairman of the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front, talks to TIME Asia associate editor Aparisim Ghosh about New Delhi's offer to open negotiations with Kashmiri separatists.
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If Advani is indeed bluffing, then exposing him to the world can only be to the Hurriyat's benefit. If he is sincere, then, by entering negotiations now, the Hurriyat will catch Delhi in its most generous mood. It will also win those diplomatic brownie points for itself. Once talks begin, Delhi will be under increasing international pressure to bring Pakistan into the picture and make the discussions truly meaningful. Islamabad, in turn, will be pressed to stop arming militant Kashmiri groups and, instead, give negotiations a chance.

There's another important consideration: as more and more Afghan mujahedin enter the fray in Kashmir, the Hurriyat runs the real risk of losing control of the rebellion. Malik maintains that the majority of the rebel fighters are locals, but reports from Kashmir suggest foreigners are taking on an ever larger role. The outsiders have their own agenda--a jihad, or holy war, which is not necessarily the same thing as Kashmiri independence. In a few years, Malik and the Hurriyat might find themselves pushed to the margins of the Kashmir uprising, unable to negotiate for anything.

The moment for talks is now: a great deal depends on Yasin Malik's willingness to set aside his skepticism and seize the day.

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